By Kenji Nakamura · Asia FX & USD/JPY Specialist
Published (UTC): 2026-05-28 07:00:07
Reference prices (10 majors): EUR/USD 1.1614 · GBP/USD 1.3405 · USD/JPY 159.47 · USD/CHF 0.7876 · AUD/USD 0.7124 · USD/CAD 1.385 · NZD/USD 0.5889 · EUR/GBP 0.8661 · EUR/JPY 185.17 · GBP/JPY 213.78
Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD medium (-0.19%) · GBP/USD medium (-0.37%) · USD/JPY low (+0.15%) · USD/CHF medium (+0.31%) · AUD/USD high (-0.65%) · USD/CAD medium (+0.31%) · NZD/USD high (+0.80%) · EUR/GBP low (+0.16%) · EUR/JPY low (-0.07%) · GBP/JPY low (-0.22%)
Today’s forex rates across the majors show a mixed picture with EUR/USD at 1.1614, GBP/USD at 1.3405, USD/JPY at 159.47, USD/CHF at 0.7876, AUD/USD at 0.7124, USD/CAD at 1.385, NZD/USD at 0.5889, EUR/GBP at 0.8661, EUR/JPY at 185.17, and GBP/JPY at 213.78, reflecting moderate to elevated volatility in antipodean pairs while yen crosses remain relatively calm.
Dollar Bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD
EUR/USD holds at 1.1614 with a slight -0.19% drift lower. The pair is compressing into the 1.1600–1.1620 support band—a clean zone from prior swing lows. A close below 1.1600 opens the door toward 1.1560. Resistance stands at 1.1650, with the 100-hour moving average reinforcing selling pressure. Bias: mildly bearish.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3405, down -0.37% on the session. The intraday range is modest, but the pair has failed to sustain above 1.3430 resistance. Support at 1.3380 is the first line, with 1.3350 the next major floor. The UK data calendar is light; cable remains driven by broader USD flows and UK yield spreads. Bias: neutral-to-bearish below 1.3430.
USD/CHF edges up to 0.7876 (+0.31%), reclaiming the 0.7870 level. The franc is under mild pressure as EUR/CHF stabilizes. Resistance at 0.7890–0.7900 caps the upside for now; support is at 0.7845. The pair is range-bound within a descending channel, and a break above 0.7900 would signal a short-term reversal. Bias: cautious bullish.
USD/CAD ticks higher to 1.3850 (+0.31%), matching the recent swing highs. The pair is testing the upper edge of a multi-week range (1.3750–1.3850). A sustained close above 1.3850 opens the path to 1.3900. Support at 1.3820, then 1.3800. WTI crude’s softness continues to lend support to the dollar side. Bias: bullish above 1.3850.
Yen Bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
USD/JPY remains firm at 159.47 (+0.15%), a stone’s throw from the psychological 160.00 barrier. The pair has been consolidating in a tight 159.20–159.70 range since the Asian session. Intervention chatter persists, but the trend is intact as long as 158.80 holds. The 160.00 level is a clear magnet; a break above could accelerate quickly. Bias: constructive.
EUR/JPY is nearly flat at 185.17 (-0.07%), drifting within a narrow band after failing to hold above 185.50. Support at 184.80 (20-day moving average) is crucial. A break below would target 184.30. The cross is highly correlated with EUR/USD direction. Bias: neutral, leaning lower.
GBP/JPY slips to 213.78 (-0.22%), pulling back from its recent highs near 214.40. The pair is consolidating after a strong rally. Support at 213.30; a breach opens 212.80. The uptrend remains intact above 212.00, but momentum is fading. Bias: short-term bearish within a broader uptrend.
Commodity & Antipodean: AUD/USD, NZD/USD
AUD/USD shows elevated volatility, dropping to 0.7124 (-0.65%) with an intraday range of 0.62%. The pair is testing the 0.7120 support level—a former resistance turned support. A clean break below here would target 0.7080. The Aussie is under pressure from weaker iron ore and ongoing risk-off sentiment. Resistance at 0.7160. Bias: decisively bearish.
NZD/USD shows even greater volatility, up +0.80% to 0.5889 with a 0.78% range. The kiwi is outperforming today, bouncing from a low near 0.5840. The move is likely driven by short-covering after recent sharp declines. Resistance at 0.5920; support at 0.5850. This is a corrective bounce in a downtrend—sellers will likely defend 0.5920. Bias: bearish on rallies.
European Cross: EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8661, a modest +0.16% gain. The pair remains pinned in a range between 0.8640 and 0.8680. The euro is slightly stronger against sterling, but the cross lacks directional conviction. A break above 0.8680 would target 0.8710; below 0.8640 opens 0.8610. Bias: neutral, inside range.
Correlation & Risk Framing
Volatility remains elevated in antipodean pairs (AUD, NZD) while yen crosses stay subdued—a pattern typical of selective risk positioning. The dollar is broadly firmer against the euro, sterling, and commodity currencies, but mixed against the yen and franc. The risk-off tilt is evident in AUD/USD weakness and NZD/USD’s erratic bounce. Treasuries are steady, but yield differentials still support USD/JPY upside. Commodities (iron ore, copper) are soft, weighing on the Aussie.
Forex Forecast & Scenarios
- EUR/USD: expect a test of 1.1600 within the session. A break lower could extend to 1.1560, but I see buying interest near 1.1580.
- GBP/USD: range 1.3380–1.3450; a close below 1.3380 shifts bias to 1.3350.
- USD/JPY: 160.00 is the key. If broken, 160.50 is likely. Watch for official comments.
- AUD/USD: 0.7100 is the next major support; shorts can target that level.
- NZD/USD: the bounce to 0.5890 is a selling opportunity toward 0.5850.
- USD/CAD: hold above 1.3850 for a run to 1.3900; failure returns to 1.3820.
- USD/CHF: range 0.7845–0.7890, slight upward bias.
- EUR/GBP: neutral within range; no strong setup.
- EUR/JPY: 185.00 is the pivot; fading upside momentum.
- GBP/JPY: pullback likely to 213.30, then re-evaluate.
Watchlist
Key levels to monitor: EUR/USD 1.1600, USD/JPY 160.00, AUD/USD 0.7100, NZD/USD 0.5920, USD/CAD 1.3850. The FX Pattern app offers real-time support/resistance maps for all ten pairs, making it easy to track these levels during the session. For intraday setups, watch for AUD/USD and NZD/USD volatility to persist—these are the most actionable pairs given the elevated intraday ranges. Intervention risk around USD/JPY remains a wildcard; stay nimble near 160.00.
About FX Pattern app
FX Pattern is an iOS app for forex market technical analysis — live quotes across ten major pairs, professional chart patterns, and multi-timeframe charts.
- App landing page: https://forex.doubanfx.com/app/
- App Store (Hong Kong): Download the FX Pattern app on the App Store HK — search “FX Pattern” in the Hong Kong store.
- Features: Pattern recognition, B/S signals, economic calendar, dark mode.
Disclaimer: For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.