What are today's forex rates?

As of this hour, EUR/USD is at 1.1608, GBP/USD at 1.3434, USD/JPY at 159.97, USD/CHF at 0.7909, AUD/USD at 0.714, USD/CAD at 1.3893, and NZD/USD at 0.587. Commodity FX is under broad pressure, with the bloc averaging -0.72% and NZD leading losses at -1.10%.

What is the AUD/USD forecast today?

AUD/USD has slid to 0.714 as the commodity rout deepens, with the pair down -0.34% this hour. The divergence from the USD-bloc average is the widest intraday gap this week. This is informational only and not investment advice.

What is the resistance level for USD/CAD?

USD/CAD has pushed above the 1.3890 handle, testing resistance that has capped upside since last Thursday. A break above that level could signal further CAD weakness, while failure to hold may see the pair retreat.

Why did NZD/USD drop below 0.5940?

NZD/USD broke through prior week support at 0.5940, accelerating selling into 0.5870 with no obvious catalyst beyond broad commodity-liquidation flows. The pair saw a 1.13% intraday range, the largest of any major pair this hour.

AUD/USD slides to 0.714 as commodity rout deepens

By Sophie Lam · Commodity FX Desk Contributor
Published (UTC): 2026-06-03 16:01:04

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD medium (-0.24%) · GBP/USD medium (-0.19%) · USD/JPY low (+0.21%) · USD/CHF high (+0.61%) · AUD/USD medium (-0.34%) · USD/CAD medium (+0.39%) · NZD/USD high (-1.10%) · EUR/GBP low (-0.07%) · EUR/JPY low (-0.06%) · GBP/JPY low (+0.01%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-06-03 16:01 UTC

Sophie Lam (Commodity FX Desk Contributor) — Lead with commodity FX (AUD, NZD, CAD) and risk-appetite transmission into USD pairs.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

Largest hourly move: NZD/USD 0.587 (high vol, -1.10% vs prior close)
Weakest major on the tape: NZD/USD (-1.10%)
Strongest major on the tape: USD/CHF (+0.61%)
Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): +0.14%
Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): +0.06%
Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): -0.72%
EUR/GBP cross: 0.8638 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by -0.05pp on the session
Elevated vol pairs: NZD/USD, USD/CHF

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.1608 · GBP/USD 1.3434 · USD/JPY 159.97 · USD/CHF 0.7909 · AUD/USD 0.714 · USD/CAD 1.3893 · NZD/USD 0.587 · EUR/GBP 0.8638 · EUR/JPY 185.64 · GBP/JPY 214.89

Desk memo — what changed this hour

Commodity FX average -0.72%: the bloc is under broad pressure, with NZD/USD leading losses at -1.10% and AUD/USD down -0.34%. The divergence from USD-bloc average (+0.14%) is the widest intraday gap this week.
USD/CAD +0.39%: CAD is the weakest commodity currency today outside NZD. The move pushes USD/CAD above the 1.3890 handle, testing resistance that has capped upside since last Thursday.
USD/CHF elevated vol (+0.61%, ~0.65% intraday range): this safe-haven bid is running counter to the typical risk-off flow (commodity bloc sold, but CHF being bought). It signals a non‑uniform risk aversion — investors are rotating into CHF rather than a universal USD bid.
Yen crosses relatively calm: EUR/JPY -0.06%, GBP/JPY +0.01% — no breakout despite the USD/JPY push to 159.97. The yen bloc average +0.06% shows little contagion from the commodity selloff.
NZD/USD’s 1.13% intraday range: the largest spread of any pair this hour. The break through 0.5940 (prior week support) has accelerated selling into 0.5870, with no obvious catalyst beyond broad commodity-liquidation flows.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD – 1.1608, neutral bias

Spot is pinned near 1.1608, oscillating in a 20‑point band since the New York open. The prior day low at 1.1590 is the immediate support, while resistance at 1.1625 (Monday’s high) caps any bounce.

Bias: Neutral. A close below 1.1590 would shift bias bearish; a break above 1.1625 would target 1.1650.

GBP/USD – 1.3434, neutral bias

Cable is modestly softer (-0.19%) but remains within a quiet range. The prior day high at 1.3470 is the key upside hurdle; support at 1.3410 (last week’s low) is the invalidation pivot for any bearish view.

Levels: Support 1.3410 (prior week low) — loss opens 1.3380. Resistance 1.3470 (Monday high) — break targets 1.3500.
Bias: Neutral; consolidation likely until a catalyst breaks the 1.3410–1.3470 zone.

USD/CHF – 0.7909, bullish bias

CHF is the strongest G10 today, but USD/CHF is rising — meaning the dollar is gaining against the franc. The intraday range ~0.65% is elevated; spot broke above 0.7900 (round number) and is testing 0.7920 resistance.

Levels: Support 0.7875 (prior day high) — holds bullish structure. Resistance 0.7920 (September high) — break would target 0.7950.
Bias: Bullish on momentum, but cautious given the high-vol move. Invalidation below 0.7875.

USD/CAD – 1.3893, bullish bias

The pair is +0.39%, extending its recovery from the 1.3820 area. The prior day high at 1.3905 is key resistance; a break there opens 1.3950. Support at 1.3850 (prior day low) is the invalidation trigger.

Levels: Support 1.3850 — holds the short-term uptrend. Resistance 1.3905 — break would confirm renewed CAD weakness.
Bias: Bullish while above 1.3850. CAD is being dragged lower by commodity rout, but watch for oil price reaction.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY – 159.97, bullish bias

The pair is +0.21%, edging toward the 160.00 psychological level. The prior day high at 160.20 is the next resistance; support at 159.50 (prior day low) keeps the bullish trend intact.

Levels: Support 159.50 — break would signal exhaustion. Resistance 160.20 — break targets 160.50 (September high).
Bias: Bullish above 159.50. Yen crosses remain calm, but USD/JPY is the driver.

EUR/JPY – 185.64, neutral bias

The cross is flat (-0.06%), caught between a weak euro and a steady yen. The prior day high at 186.00 is resistance; support at 185.30 (prior day low) holds.

Levels: Support 185.30 — break opens 185.00. Resistance 186.00 — break targets 186.50.
Bias: Neutral; range-bound until EUR/USD or USD/JPY breaks out.

GBP/JPY – 214.89, neutral bias

The cross is virtually unchanged (+0.01%), mirroring the quiet in both cable and USD/JPY. The prior day high at 215.30 is resistance; support at 214.50 (prior day low) is the near-term floor.

Levels: Support 214.50 — holds the 20‑day moving average. Resistance 215.30 — break targets 216.00.
Bias: Neutral; a bearish tilt would require a break below 214.50.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD – 0.714, bearish bias

The pair is -0.34%, testing the 0.7140 level after failing to hold 0.7160 earlier. The prior day low at 0.7125 is the immediate support; resistance at 0.7170 (Monday high).

Levels: Support 0.7125 — break opens 0.7100 (round number). Resistance 0.7170 — break needed to negate bearish bias.
Bias: Bearish while below 0.7170. The commodity bloc weakness is led by NZD, but AUD is not immune. Invalidation above 0.7200.

NZD/USD – 0.587, bearish bias

The biggest mover of the session, down -1.10% with a 1.13% intraday range. The break below 0.5940 (prior support) has accelerated to 0.5870, testing the August low at 0.5850.

Levels: Support 0.5850 (August low) — break would open 0.5800. Resistance now 0.5920 (prior support turned resistance).
Bias: Bearish; short-term oversold but no reversal signal yet. Invalidation above 0.5940.

European cross: EUR/GBP – 0.8638, neutral bias

The cross is -0.07%, with no clear directional impetus. The prior day high at 0.8650 is resistance; support at 0.8620 (prior week low) holds.

Levels: Support 0.8620 — break targets 0.8600. Resistance 0.8650 — break opens 0.8670.
Bias: Neutral; both legs are weak, keeping the cross range-bound.

Cross-market read: correlations & risk appetite

The divergence between USD-bloc (+0.14%) and commodity FX (-0.72%) is the clearest signal this hour. Typically, risk-off sees both blocs sold, but today USD/CHF is rising (dollar strength) while USD/CAD is also rising (CAD weakness). This suggests a terms‑of-trade story: commodity exporters (NZD, AUD, CAD) are being hit by a combination of lower commodity prices and broad USD demand. The yen bloc’s calm average (+0.06%) indicates that yen crosses are not yet participating in the risk-off, which could change if USD/JPY breaks 160.

What consensus may be missing

The market is treating NZD/USD’s collapse as a pure NZD story, but the CAD weakness in USD/CAD (+0.39%) and AUD’s underperformance relative to the NZD‑implied move suggest a broader commodity‑liquidation channel. The real catalyst may be month-end rebalancing, not a fundamental shift in New Zealand’s outlook. Positioning in AUD and CAD is likely more crowded than NZD, meaning any snap‑back in risk appetite could see the antipodean pairs rally faster than the consensus expects.

Forex forecast: base / alternate / invalidation

Base case: Commodity FX continues to underperform near-term, with USD strength persisting. NZD/USD tests 0.5850, AUD/USD grinds to 0.7100. USD/CHF holds above 0.7900.
Alternate: If USD/JPY fails at 160.00, a broader USD correction could lift AUD and NZD. The yen bloc would rally, and USD/CHF would reverse below 0.7875.
Invalidation: For the bearish commodity view, a close in NZD/USD above 0.5940 or AUD/USD above 0.7200 would signal exhaustion.

Session watchlist: named events with pair impact

14:30 GMT – US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (EUR/USD, USD/JPY): a weak print could pause USD bids, but the focus remains on macro flows.
15:00 GMT – US consumer confidence (CB) (USD/CAD, AUD/USD): a downside surprise would add to risk‑off, weighing on commodity FX.
17:00 GMT – RBNZ Financial Stability Report (NZD/USD, AUD/USD): any mention of currency weakness or housing risks could exacerbate NZD selling.

This note is from the FX Pattern commodity FX desk — tracking risk‑appetite transmission and terms‑of‑trade moves across G10.

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