What are the latest forex rates for EUR/USD and GBP/USD?

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1549, up 0.12%, while GBP/USD is at 1.338, up 0.05%. Both are holding firm as core European currencies gain against a soft commodity bloc.

Why is AUD/USD underperforming today?

AUD/USD is down 0.28% to 0.7004, the clear outlier dragging the commodity FX average to -0.22%. This reflects a classic intra-bloc divergence with safe G10 flow into EUR and GBP versus vulnerable commodity-linked currencies. This information is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.

What is the resistance level for EUR/GBP?

EUR/GBP is testing the 0.8630 resistance zone at 0.8629, which capped action through last week. This is a positioning grind, not a catalyst-driven move, and a break above 0.8630 could open further upside.

Should I sell USD/JPY here?

USD/JPY is effectively flat at 160.51, capped by the 160.80 prior high. Yen selling is concentrated in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, not in USD/JPY, so a clear directional bias is lacking. This is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Firm as Commodity Bloc Weakens

By Victoria Hale · Head of G10 FX Strategy
Published (UTC): 2026-06-11 04:00:12

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD low (+0.12%) · GBP/USD low (+0.05%) · USD/JPY low (+0.08%) · USD/CHF low (-0.08%) · AUD/USD medium (-0.28%) · USD/CAD low (-0.11%) · NZD/USD low (-0.17%) · EUR/GBP low (+0.06%) · EUR/JPY low (+0.17%) · GBP/JPY low (+0.14%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-06-11 04:00 UTC

Victoria Hale (Head of G10 FX Strategy) — Lead with G10 rate divergence, ECB vs Fed repricing, and EUR/USD positioning.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

Largest hourly move: AUD/USD 0.7004 (medium vol, -0.28% vs prior close)
Weakest major on the tape: AUD/USD (-0.28%)
Strongest major on the tape: EUR/JPY (+0.17%)
Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): -0.01%
Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): +0.13%
Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): -0.22%
EUR/GBP cross: 0.8629 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by +0.06pp on the session
Elevated vol pairs: none — majors trading in low/medium vol

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.1549 · GBP/USD 1.338 · USD/JPY 160.51 · USD/CHF 0.7986 · AUD/USD 0.7004 · USD/CAD 1.3938 · NZD/USD 0.5797 · EUR/GBP 0.8629 · EUR/JPY 185.31 · GBP/JPY 214.75

Desk memo — what changed this hour

AUD/USD -0.28% is the clear outlier, dragging the Commodity FX average to -0.22%, while EUR/USD (+0.12%) and GBP/USD (+0.05%) hold their ground. This is a classic intra-bloc divergence: the “safe” G10 flow into EUR and GBP versus vulnerable commodity-linked currencies.
EUR/JPY (+0.17% to 185.31) is the strongest pair in the table, confirming that yen selling is concentrated in euro and sterling crosses, not broad USD/JPY. USD/JPY is effectively flat at 160.51, capped by the 160.80 prior high.
USD/CAD (-0.11%) is lower despite AUD weakness, suggesting CAD resilience from oil price stability—a nuance the tape is pricing but the consensus may be underweighting.
The USD bloc average is -0.01%, essentially flat, while the yen bloc average is +0.13%, driven entirely by EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. The pattern is stale dollar, firm core Europe, soft commodity FX.
EUR/GBP (+0.06% at 0.8629) reflects a slight euro tilt in a pair that rarely leads—this is a positioning grind, not a catalyst-driven move. The cross is testing the 0.8630 resistance zone that capped action through last week.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD

Spot: 1.1549 Bias: Neutral-bullish
Support: 1.1520 – prior day’s low, a level that held during the early Asia session dip. Bulls need to defend this for the base case to remain intact.
Resistance: 1.1580 – 50-day moving average, a classic vol band that has rejected three advances in the last two weeks. A clean break opens 1.1620.
Invalidation: A sustained breach below 1.1500 (psychological barrier and last week’s settlement) flips the bias bearish.
Analysis: EUR/USD remains the anchor of the quiet euro-dollar session. The 0.12% gain is marginal but meaningful against the broader backdrop of commodity bloc underperformance. The pair is grinding within a 1.1520–1.1580 range, with vol compressed. The desk notes that gamma is low, and the market is waiting on the US PPI release later. Until then, the 1.1550 midpoint is acting as a pivot. What consensus may be missing is that the ECB’s hawkish hold rhetoric is still providing a floor—rate differentials have not widened further versus the USD, but they have stopped narrowing.

GBP/USD

Spot: 1.3380 Bias: Neutral
Support: 1.3340 – the prior day’s low, a level that has held in three consecutive sessions despite intraday probes. A close below here would suggest fading upside momentum.
Resistance: 1.3420 – the round number and the early May high. Cable has failed to close above this level in the last five attempts.
Invalidation: A drop below 1.3300 (the 100-hour moving average) would break the short-term uptrend and force a reassessment.
Analysis: GBP/USD is treading water, matching EUR/USD’s performance in relative terms (+0.05%). The pair is stuck in a 1.3340–1.3420 range, with positioning light. The BoE is still viewed as one of the more hawkish central banks among G10 ex-Japan, but the rate story has lost momentum. The market is now pricing the first cut fully for late Q3 2025, which leaves limited room for further hawkish repricing. The desk sees the neutral bias as a function of waiting for the next catalyst—likely the UK labour data next week.

USD/CHF

Spot: 0.7986 Bias: Neutral-bearish
Support: 0.7960 – the recent low from May 30, a level that has acted as a springboard for two intraday bounce attempts.
Resistance: 0.8010 – the prior day’s high and a resistance from the 20-day moving average.
Invalidation: A move above 0.8030 would break the short-term bearish channel and shift the bias to neutral-bullish.
Analysis: USD/CHF is marginally softer (-0.08%), tracking the general dollar weakness against the euro. The franc is behaving as a safe-haven proxy, with little correlation to the EUR/CHF cross. The 0.80 level is a psychological ceiling; the pair has traded below it for most of the week. The 0.7960 support is fragile—if broken, a test of 0.7930 (the May floor) is likely.

USD/CAD

Spot: 1.3938 Bias: Bearish
Support: 1.3900 – the psychological round number and the R1 pivot from yesterday. A break below opens 1.3860.
Resistance: 1.3970 – the prior day’s high, a level that has capped two intraday rallies this week.
Invalidation: A close above 1.4000 would negate the current bearish tilt and re-establish the 1.40–1.4050 range.
Analysis: USD/CAD is moving lower (-0.11%), bucking the broader commodity bloc weakness. This is a subtle but important divergence. While AUD/USD is underperforming, CAD is holding firm, likely on the back of oil prices (WTI stable above $78). The pair is testing the 1.3930–1.3940 support zone. The level to watch is 1.3900—a break there would be the first sign that the recent USD/CAD uptrend (from 1.3650) is faltering. The desk is watching the Canadian employment data due Friday for confirmation.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

Spot: 160.51 Bias: Neutral
Support: 160.00 – the big figure and a level that held during the Asian session from a probe to 160.35. A break below would target 159.70.
Resistance: 160.80 – the prior day’s high (160.52) is technical, but the real resistance is 160.80, the May high.
Invalidation: A sustained move above 161.00 would open the path to 161.80 and shift the bias bullish.
Analysis: USD/JPY is “relatively calm” (+0.08%) per the feed, but the pressure is to the upside—the pair has been creeping higher through the European morning. The 160.50 level is a tough nut; the Bank of Japan’s verbal intervention threat is still in play, but the market is testing it. The vol is low, and the pair is trading in a 20-pip range. For now, the desk is neutral, but the risk is for a breakout above 160.80 if US yields edge higher.

EUR/JPY

Spot: 185.31 Bias: Bullish
Support: 185.00 – the round number and the overnight low (185.10). A break below would retest 184.50.
Resistance: 185.80 – the prior day’s high (185.35) is short-term, but the bigger pivot is 185.80, the high from last week.
Invalidation: A close below 184.50 would break the uptrend from the 183.00 area and shift the bias neutral.
Analysis: EUR/JPY is the top performer (+0.17%) among all pairs. The yen is under broad selling pressure, but the euro is the primary beneficiary. The cross has broken above the 185.00 resistance, and momentum is building. The 185.80 level is the next beachhead. The desk sees this as a continuation move: the interest rate differential story (ECB vs BoJ) remains the driver, and positioning is not yet extreme.

GBP/JPY

Spot: 214.75 Bias: Bullish
Support: 214.30 – the prior day’s low, a level that has held twice this week. A break below would test 214.00.
Resistance: 215.00 – the psychological barrier and a level that has capped the cross in late May. A close above would be significant.
Invalidation: A drop below 214.00 (the 20-day moving average) would negate the bullish bias.
Analysis: GBP/JPY is also firmer (+0.14%), tracking the euro/yen pattern but with less momentum. The 215.00 level is the big target. The cross is overbought on the daily RSI (above 70), but that hasn’t stopped it from grinding higher. The desk notes that the yen bloc strength is concentrated in euro and sterling crosses, not the dollar, which suggests the market is buying EUR and GBP, not selling yen outright. The 214.75 level is a consolidation zone; a break above 215.00 would likely trigger stop runs.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD

Spot: 0.7004 Bias: Bearish
Support: 0.6970 – the prior day’s low and a level that represents the May trough. A break below would target 0.6940.
Resistance: 0.7040 – the prior day’s high, which is also the 20-day moving average. Bulls need to reclaim this to stabilize.
Invalidation: A move above 0.7050 (the 50-day moving average) would invalidate the bearish bias and suggest a failed breakdown.
Analysis: AUD/USD is the tape leader this hour, down -0.28% to 0.7004. The break below 0.7030 in early European hours triggered selling into the 0.7000 handle. The 0.70 big figure is providing support for now, but the trend is firmly lower. The driver is commodity weakness (iron ore, copper) and a general re-pricing of RBA rate expectations (market pricing first cut in Q1 2026, but that may not be enough). The desk’s contrarian insight: What consensus may be missing is that the AUD selloff is not just about China demand. It’s about the widening rate differential vis-à-vis the EUR and GBP. The RBA has been less hawkish than the ECB or BoE in forward guidance, and that is being priced now. The 0.6970 level is the last line of defence before a test of 0.6900.

NZD/USD

Spot: 0.5797 Bias: Bearish
Support: 0.5770 – the prior day’s low, a level that is also the May floor. A break would open 0.5740.
Resistance: 0.5830 – the 20-day moving average, a level that has capped rallies since mid-May.
Invalidation: A close above 0.5850 would break the short-term downtrend and neutralise the bearish bias.
Analysis: NZD/USD is softer (-0.17%), in line with the commodity bloc theme but less dramatic than AUD/USD. The pair is trading in a tight range, with the USD direction providing the lead. The RBNZ remains more cautious than the RBA, meaning NZD underperformance against AUD is baked in. The 0.5770 support is key; if AUD/USD breaks 0.6970, NZD/USD will likely follow lower.

European cross: EUR/GBP

Spot: 0.8629 Bias: Neutral-bullish
Support: 0.8600 – the psychological barrier and a level that has held for five consecutive sessions.
Resistance: 0.8650 – the high from May 26, which is also the 50-day moving average.
Invalidation: A drop below 0.8580 would break the uptrend from the 0.8550 area and flip the bias neutral-bearish.
Analysis: EUR/GBP is modestly firmer (+0.06%), reflecting the euro’s slight outperformance versus sterling. The cross is stuck in a 0.8600–0.8650 range, with low vol. The pair’s range is consistent with a market that sees both ECB and BoE as hawkish, but with the euro marginally better positioned. The 0.8629 level is a midpoint; the desk sees no catalyst to break out until the ECB meeting later this month.

Cross-market read: correlations & risk appetite

The USD bloc average (-0.01%) and yen bloc average (+0.13%) highlight a bifurcated market. The dollar is essentially flat, but the internal FX dynamics are divergent:

EUR/USD and GBP/USD are holding steady, reflecting a market that is comfortable with risk but discriminating between core G10 and commodity FX.
Yen bloc firmness is driven by EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, not USD/JPY, which is capped. This suggests the yen is being sold against high-yielders, not as a safe-haven trade.
Commodity FX weakness (avg -0.22%) is the story: AUD/USD -0.28%, NZD/USD -0.17%. This is a classic risk-off filter for resources-exposed currencies, even as equity markets are not in outright selloff mode.

Risk appetite is mixed: equity futures are little changed, but the commodity slide signals a rotation out of cyclical FX. The correlation between commodity prices and AUD/NZD is rising, while the correlation between core G10 FX and equities is falling. This points to a market that is selectively cautious, not broadly risk-off.

Forex forecast: base / alternate / invalidation

Base case: EUR/USD and GBP/USD hold their ranges (1.1520–1.1580 and 1.3340–1.3420, respectively) through the US session, with AUD/USD grinding lower toward 0.6970. The dollar stays mixed, yen crosses trend upward.

Alternate case: A downside surprise in US PPI (forecast 0.3% MoM) sparks a dollar selloff, pushing EUR/USD above 1.1580 to 1.1620 and USD/JPY below 160.00. This would break the current patterns and establish a new leg for core G10 FX.

Invalidation trigger: EUR/USD below 1.1500 or GBP/USD below 1.3300 would signal that the dollar is gaining traction across the board, which would likely accelerate commodity FX losses and drag yen crosses lower.

Session watchlist: named events with pair impact

13:30 GMT – US Producer Price Index (May MoM) – Q: 0.3% prior: 0.5%. A number below 0.2% would be dovish for the USD, boosting EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. A print at 0.4% or above would stall the euro’s advance. Main impact on EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
15:00 GMT – Fed’s Michelle Bowman (permanent voter) speaks – She has been hawkish; any dovish lean could cap the USD. Impact on USD/CHF and US yield-sensitive pairs like GBP/JPY.
18:00 GMT – ECB’s Philip Lane speaks – He may reiterate the June cut was a one-off; any hawkish nuance would support EUR/GBP and EUR/USD.

No other major data scheduled, so these events will determine whether the current patterns hold or break.

This note is a real-time desk assessment. For the latest levels, refer to the FX Pattern platform.

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