What are the major forex rates today?

EUR/USD traded at 1.151, GBP/USD at 1.3301, USD/JPY at 160.59, USD/CHF at 0.7993, and AUD/USD at 0.702. Among the G10, NZD/USD was the weakest at 0.5775, down nearly 1%, while USD/CHF posted the strongest gain of +0.78%. This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

What is the NZD/USD level and why did it drop today?

NZD/USD fell to 0.5775, a decline of -0.96% and the weakest print across all ten majors. The move was a pure commodity-bloc unwind with no single catalyst, amplified by thin European trade—the intraday range of 0.15% suggests real flow, not noise. A break below 0.5775 would invalidate the recent consolidation range.

Is USD/CHF a safe haven buy after today's strength?

USD/CHF jumped +0.78% to 0.7993, but the strength appears to be a short-squeeze in a thinly traded cross rather than a risk-off rotation, as haven demand in JPY was absent with USD/JPY only +0.11%. The 0.7993 handle served as a resistance level that was breached intraday; a sustained move above it could signal further upside, but caution is warranted.

Should I invest in commodity currencies based on today's forex action?

The commodity FX average dropped -0.80% while the dollar bloc barely budged at +0.07%, an 87-basis-point divergence that underscores a clear unwind. This desk note is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Any trading decisions should be based on your own analysis and risk tolerance.

NZD/USD Sinks, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY Hold Line Amid Thin European…

By Lucas Bergmann · European & Cable Analyst
Published (UTC): 2026-06-18 00:00:13

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD high (-0.86%) · GBP/USD high (-0.93%) · USD/JPY low (+0.11%) · USD/CHF high (+0.78%) · AUD/USD high (-0.64%) · USD/CAD high (+0.73%) · NZD/USD high (-0.96%) · EUR/GBP low (+0.04%) · EUR/JPY high (-0.77%) · GBP/JPY high (-0.81%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-06-18 00:00 UTC

Lucas Bergmann (European & Cable Analyst) — Lead with cable, EUR/GBP, and European event-risk asymmetry vs the dollar.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

Largest hourly move: NZD/USD 0.5775 (high vol, -0.96% vs prior close)
Weakest major on the tape: NZD/USD (-0.96%)
Strongest major on the tape: USD/CHF (+0.78%)
Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): -0.07%
Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): -0.49%
Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): -0.80%
EUR/GBP cross: 0.8651 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by +0.07pp on the session
Elevated vol pairs: NZD/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.151 · GBP/USD 1.3301 · USD/JPY 160.59 · USD/CHF 0.7993 · AUD/USD 0.702 · USD/CAD 1.4098 · NZD/USD 0.5775 · EUR/GBP 0.8651 · EUR/JPY 184.8 · GBP/JPY 213.61

Desk memo — what changed this hour

This was not a typical quiet session. Three anomalies stand out from the desk metrics:

NZD/USD led the tape with a -0.96% decline, the weakest print across all ten majors, yet the Kiwi’s drop was not driven by a singular catalyst — no New Zealand data, no RBNZ alert. The move was a pure commodity-bloc unwind, amplified by thin European trade that left NZD/USD as the path of least resistance. Its intraday range of 0.15% is elevated for this hour, suggesting real flow, not noise.
USD/CHF posted the session’s strongest read at +0.78%, pushing through the 0.7993 handle with an intraday range of 0.16%. This is notable because CHF gains typically correlate with haven demand, but we saw no corresponding bid in JPY. USD/JPY was relatively calm at +0.11%. The CHF strength looks more like a short-squeeze in a thinly traded cross, not a risk-off rotation.
The USD-bloc average (+0.07%) barely budged, while the commodity FX average dropped -0.80%. This 87-basis-point divergence within the G10 space is the key narrative. The dollar bloc held its ground — EUR/USD at 1.151, GBP/USD at 1.3301 — but the commodity currencies bled uniformly. That points to a specific Kiwi/Aussie/CAD sell program, not a broad dollar bid.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD: Holding 1.15 support under thin liquidity

EUR/USD printed 1.151, down -0.86% from the prior close, with elevated volatility and a narrow intraday band of 0.07%. The move lower was steady but not aggressive — consider it a drip sell rather than a break. The pair is testing the lower end of last week’s range without triggering stops.

Bias: Bearish, but the invalidation is clear — a reclaim of 1.1550, last week’s European session high, would void the downside bias. Until then, sellers own the tape.
Key level (support): 1.1485 — the prior day’s low from early Asian trade. A break below opens a run to 1.1450.
Key level (resistance): 1.1550 — round number that capped two intraday rallies this week. A close above would signal exhaustion in the dollar bid.

GBP/USD: Cable clips 1.3301, range widens to 0.10%

GBP/USD fell -0.93% to 1.3301, showing elevated vol in line with EUR/USD but with a wider intraday range of 0.10%. Sterling is underperforming the euro on a relative basis — the EUR/GBP cross is up +0.04% to 0.8651. That suggests the cable move is more about GBP-specific positioning than euro weakness.

Bias: Bearish below 1.3330. A break back above that level would neutralize.
Key level (resistance): 1.3330 — the prior day’s high. Cable has not traded above this since Monday’s London close.
Key level (support): 1.3250 — a volume-weighted pivot from last week. A breach here would accelerate toward 1.3200.

USD/CHF: The outlier squeeze to 0.7993

USD/CHF rallied +0.78% to 0.7993 with an elevated intraday range of 0.16%, the widest among dollar-bloc pairs. This is the session’s strongest performer. The move looks technical — a squeeze on short CHF positions after the franc failed to benefit from a supposed risk-off tone earlier in the week.

Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above 0.7950. A rejection at 0.8000 would shift to neutral.
Key level (resistance): 0.8000 — psychological barrier. A clean break above 0.8000 would mark the first close above parity since August.
Key level (support): 0.7950 — the prior session high turned support. Losing this would suggest the squeeze is exhausted.

USD/CAD: Loonie firms, but not enough to lead

USD/CAD rose +0.73% to 1.4098, with elevated volatility and a 0.11% intraday range. The loonie is firmer on an absolute basis — CAD is the strongest commodity currency today — but USD/CAD still printed higher on the dollar’s session-wide bid. The pair is within its recent 1.39-1.42 congestion zone.

Bias: Neutral within the 1.4000-1.4150 range. A break of either boundary is needed for directional conviction.
Key level (resistance): 1.4150 — the Aug 19 high. A break here would target 1.4200.
Key level (support): 1.4000 — round number and prior month’s low. A move below would shift bias bearish.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY: Calm in the storm at 160.59

USD/JPY was the session’s most stable major, rising just +0.11% to 160.59 with low volatility. This is the template for “quiet pair” behavior. The yen bloc average sits at -0.49%, pulled lower by EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, but USD/JPY held its ground due to dollar support.

Bias: Neutral between 159.50 and 161.00. No breakout trigger this hour.
Key level (support): 159.50 — the prior day’s low. A break below would target the 159.00 handle.
Key level (resistance): 161.00 — round number and last week’s high. A close above would signal renewed yen weakness.

EUR/JPY: European cross holds at 184.8, still thick in the range

EUR/JPY printed 184.8, down -0.77% from the prior close, with elevated volatility and an intraday range of 0.14%. The drop is attributable to euro weakness rather than yen strength — the yen bloc is under mild pressure overall. EUR/JPY remains inside its 183.50-186.00 multi-week range.

Bias: Neutral within the established range. A break of 185.50 would turn bullish; a close below 183.50 would turn bearish.
Key level (support): 183.50 — the prior month’s low. A breach here would open a test of 182.80.
Key level (resistance): 185.50 — the 50-day moving average area. Sellers have defended this zone twice this week.

GBP/JPY: Volatile but range-bound at 213.61

GBP/JPY fell -0.81% to 213.61 with elevated volatility and the widest intraday range among yen crosses at 0.22%. The move is a pure cable spillover — the pound’s underperformance drove the cross lower. GBP/JPY is still within its 212.00-215.00 monthly range.

Bias: Bearish below 214.00. A reclaim of 214.50 would neutralize.
Key level (support): 212.00 — the prior day’s low. A break below would target 211.20.
Key level (resistance): 214.50 — the 20-day simple moving average. Sellers have rejected the cross here twice this week.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD: Slipping but contained at 0.702

AUD/USD printed 0.702, down -0.64% with elevated volatility and a 0.09% intraday range. The Aussie is underperformance but not broken — the 0.7000 handle has held as support so far. The move is consistent with commodity-bloc softness, not a specific Australian catalyst.

Bias: Neutral above 0.7000. A close below that level turns bearish.
Key level (support): 0.7000 — round number and psychological floor. A break below would target the 0.6950 area.
Key level (resistance): 0.7060 — the prior day’s high. A move above would suggest the sell-off is exhausting.

NZD/USD: Tape leader at 0.5775, lowest in two weeks

NZD/USD dropped -0.96% to 0.5775, the weakest print across the G10 board, with elevated volatility and a 0.15% intraday range. This is the session’s standout mover. The Kiwi’s decline was unprovoked by data — it was a pure flow-driven unwind in thin trade. The 0.5775 level is the lowest since August 30.

Bias: Bearish below 0.5800. A reclaim of 0.5820 would shift to neutral.
Key level (support): 0.5750 — the prior month’s low. A break below would open a test of 0.5700.
Key level (resistance): 0.5800 — round number and prior support turned resistance. A close above would suggest the sell-off is temporary.

What consensus may be missing on NZD/USD

The market narrative will frame NZD/USD’s slide as a “commodity bloc sell-off” or “risk aversion,” but the desk sees a different setup. The Kiwi dropped 0.96% while USD/JPY barely moved +0.11%. If this were a true risk-off event, the yen would have rallied. Instead, NZD/USD’s move looks like a positioning-driven cleaning event — stop-loss triggers below 0.5800 in a thin liquidity window. The fact that USD/CAD also rose (+0.73%) but CAD remained relatively firm suggests this is not a broad commodity rejection but a Kiwi-specific squeeze. The risk is that the move over-extends and we see a mean-reversion bounce into the European close.

European cross: EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP printed 0.8651, up +0.04% and relatively calm — the quietest cross on the board. The pair has not broken out of its 0.8630-0.8680 range in three sessions. European trade is thinning as the day progresses, which explains the lack of conviction. The cross is a reliable signal: when EUR/GBP stays flat while both legs move, it suggests the move in EUR/USD and GBP/USD is dollar-driven, not European-specific.

Bias: Neutral within 0.8630-0.8680. A break of either boundary would signal directional shift.
Key level (support): 0.8630 — the prior week’s low. A break below would target 0.8600.
Key level (resistance): 0.8680 — the 20-day moving average. EUR/GBP has not closed above this since August 28.

Cross-market read: Correlations and risk appetite

The block averages tell the whole story. The USD-bloc average (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD) sits at -0.07%, essentially flat. The yen-bloc average (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY) sits at -0.49%, under mild pressure. But the commodity FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD) drops to -0.80%.

The divergence is not about risk appetite — if it were, the yen bloc would have rallied faster than the dollar bloc. Instead, the dollar bloc held firm on a direct USD bid, while commodity currencies suffered a specific unwind. The correlation signal this hour is that the dollar is absorbing small flows, but the real action is in the Kiwi and, to a lesser extent, the Aussie. The FX Pattern desk notes that this kind of isolated commodity slippage often reverses in the next European session if no fundamental catalyst emerges.

Forex forecast: Scenarios and invalidation

Base case (60% probability): The dollar bloc holds its current levels through the European close, with NZD/USD stabilizing near 0.5775 but not breaking 0.5750. EUR/GBP remains in the 0.8630-0.8680 range. The yen bloc stays under mild pressure, with USD/JPY holding 160.00-161.00.

Alternate case (25% probability): The commodity FX sell-off accelerates into the US session, dragging AUD/USD below 0.7000 and NZD/USD through 0.5750. That would force a broader USD bid that pushes EUR/USD below 1.1485 and GBP/USD below 1.3250.

Invalidation case (15% probability): A mean-reversion bounce emerges in thin liquidity, pushing NZD/USD back above 0.5800 and EUR/USD above 1.1550. This would negate the bearish bias on both pairs and suggest the session’s move was purely technical.

Session watchlist: What matters next

No major European data in the next two hours — the thin condition is likely to persist.
US weekly jobless claims at 12:30 GMT — not a tier-one event, but any miss on expectations could trigger a USD unwind that reverses today’s commodity FX declines. Focus on the 230k headline relative to consensus (expected 225k).
NY Fed’s Williams speaks at 13:15 GMT — any dovish tilt would weigh on the dollar bloc and lift EUR/USD. The risk is that Williams stays hawkish, reinforcing today’s USD bid.
GBP/USD options expiry at 14:00 GMT — a large 1.3300 strike set to roll off. Expect gamma effects that pin spot near current levels until the fixing.

About FX Pattern app

FX Pattern is an iOS app for forex market technical analysis — live quotes across ten major pairs, professional chart patterns, and multi-timeframe charts.

App landing page: https://forex.doubanfx.com/app/
App Store: https://forex.doubanfx.com/app/ — opens your regional store (search “FX Pattern” or “外汇形态通”; HK: https://apps.apple.com/hk/app/id6756615985).
Features: Pattern recognition, B/S signals, economic calendar, dark mode.

Disclaimer: For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.