Pattern 10 Major Pairs | Hourly FX Analysis
10 Major FX Pairs Technical Analysis

GBP/USD firms as EUR/GBP drifts lower

Forex rates today: EUR/USD 1.1383, GBP/USD 1.32, USD/JPY 161.58, USD/CHF 0.8098, AUD/USD 0.6917. Desk memo — what changed this hour

By Lucas Bergmann · European & Cable Analyst
Published (UTC): 2026-06-24 00:00:14

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD medium (-0.39%) · GBP/USD medium (-0.36%) · USD/JPY low (+0.01%) · USD/CHF low (+0.12%) · AUD/USD high (-1.11%) · USD/CAD medium (+0.37%) · NZD/USD high (-0.81%) · EUR/GBP low (-0.07%) · EUR/JPY medium (-0.41%) · GBP/JPY medium (-0.35%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-06-24 00:00 UTC

Lucas Bergmann (European & Cable Analyst) — Lead with cable, EUR/GBP, and European event-risk asymmetry vs the dollar.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

  • Largest hourly move: AUD/USD 0.6917 (high vol, -1.11% vs prior close)
  • Weakest major on the tape: AUD/USD (-1.11%)
  • Strongest major on the tape: USD/CAD (+0.37%)
  • Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): -0.07%
  • Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): -0.25%
  • Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): -0.96%
  • EUR/GBP cross: 0.862 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by -0.03pp on the session
  • Elevated vol pairs: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.1383 · GBP/USD 1.32 · USD/JPY 161.58 · USD/CHF 0.8098 · AUD/USD 0.6917 · USD/CAD 1.421 · NZD/USD 0.5665 · EUR/GBP 0.862 · EUR/JPY 183.86 · GBP/JPY 213.28

Desk memo — what changed this hour

  • AUD/USD leads the tape with a 1.11% decline to 0.6917, but EUR/USD and GBP/USD hold within 0.4% of prior close — the divergence signals a commodity-specific corrective move, not broad dollar demand.
  • EUR/GBP edges down 0.07% to 0.862 as cross flows absorb the Aussie pressure; the pair remains inside yesterday’s range, with low volatility suggesting positioning is balanced.
  • USD/CAD is the strongest pair (+0.37% to 1.421), reflecting an oil-linked bid and the commodity bloc selloff’s rotation into Canadian dollar weakness — an outlier against the USD-bloc average of -0.07%.
  • Yen-bloc averages -0.25% versus USD-bloc -0.07%, highlighting that yen crosses are not reacting to the Aussie slide; USD/JPY is virtually flat (+0.01%) at 161.58.
  • High-vol pairs are limited to AUD/USD and NZD/USD; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP exhibit moderate-to-calm volatility, reinforcing the rotation away from overexposed commodity FX.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD — holds 1.1383

Bias: Neutral

  • Support: 1.1350 — round number and the prior session’s low; a break opens 1.1300.
  • Resistance: 1.1400 — psychological level and the 20-day moving average zone; clean break required for bullish continuation.
  • Invalidation: A close below 1.1300 would shift bias bearish, triggered by broad dollar buying or a break in the euro zone bond spread.

GBP/USD — firms near 1.32

Bias: Bullish

  • Support: 1.3150 — the prior week’s low and a key swing point; losing this level would argue the firmer tone is false.
  • Resistance: 1.3250 — prior month high and a cluster of option barriers; a break above would confirm the uptrend.
  • Invalidation: Drop below 1.3100 would negate the bullish bias, likely on a surprise UK data miss or dollar rally.

USD/CHF — calm at 0.8098

Bias: Neutral

  • Support: 0.8050 — recent support line and round number; break targets 0.8000.
  • Resistance: 0.8120 — prior session high and a vol band ceiling; a move above would suggest risk-off flows into the franc.
  • Invalidation: Sustained trade under 0.8000 signals renewed franc strength.

USD/CAD — strengthens to 1.421

Bias: Bullish (in relation to CAD weakness)

  • Support: 1.4150 — prior day low and a short-term vol floor; holds indicate continued bid.
  • Resistance: 1.4250 — round number and the 200-day moving average in sight; break would target 1.4300.
  • Invalidation: A drop below 1.4100 would suggest the oil linkage is fading, turning bias neutral.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY — flat at 161.58

Bias: Neutral

  • Support: 161.00 — psychological level and prior week’s low; holds signal no breakout.
  • Resistance: 162.00 — round number and the upper end of the recent range; break would need a catalyst.
  • Invalidation: A close above 162.00 would turn bias bullish; below 161.00 would point to yen firming.

EUR/JPY — eases 0.41% to 183.86

Bias: Bearish

  • Support: 183.00 — prior month low and a key demand zone; break opens 182.00.
  • Resistance: 184.50 — recent resistance from the 20-day average; fails to hold above suggests continued drift.
  • Invalidation: A rally above 185.00 would invalidate the bearish view, triggered by euro strength or risk-on.

GBP/JPY — drifts 0.35% to 213.28

Bias: Bearish

  • Support: 212.50 — prior week low and a convexity pivot; break would accelerate selling.
  • Resistance: 214.00 — round number and the session high; a reclaim would negate the drift.
  • Invalidation: Close above 214.50 would shift bias neutral; driven by sterling outperformance or yen weakness.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD — eases 1.11% to 0.6917

Bias: Bearish

  • Support: 0.6880 — prior month low and a major support line; break would target 0.6800.
  • Resistance: 0.6950 — the prior session’s low now turned resistance; a reclaim would slow the selloff.
  • Invalidation: A sustained move above 0.7000 would invalidate the bearish bias, likely on a positive China data surprise.

NZD/USD — eases 0.81% to 0.5665

Bias: Bearish

  • Support: 0.5630 — recent swing low from earlier this week; break opens 0.5600.
  • Resistance: 0.5700 — round number and the prior day’s high; a break above would signal stabilization.
  • Invalidation: A close above 0.5750 would turn bias neutral; triggered by a shift in global risk appetite.

European cross: EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP — drifts lower to 0.862

Bias: Neutral-to-bearish

  • Support: 0.8600 — psychological level and recent support zone; a break would target 0.8580.
  • Resistance: 0.8650 — prior session high; a move above would suggest euro outperformance.
  • Invalidation: Sustained trade above 0.8680 would shift bias bullish, indicating GBP underperformance.

Cross-market read: correlations & risk appetite

The USD-bloc average of -0.07% versus the yen-bloc average of -0.25% shows that while the yen bloc is marginally weaker, the differential is modest. The commodity FX average at -0.96% is a clear outlier, driven entirely by AUD and NZD. This suggests the move is not a broad risk-off rotation but a pair-specific correction in commodity currencies, likely tied to softer iron ore and dairy prices. EUR/USD and GBP/USD holding near their prior closes confirms that dollar demand is not broad. The low volatility in EUR/GBP (0.862, -0.07%) further underscores that the cross is absorbing flows without triggering larger positioning shifts.

What consensus may be missing

The tape leader is AUD/USD, and consensus may be reading this as a risk-off signal for all G10 pairs. But the lack of follow-through in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY tells a different story: the Aussie selloff is isolated, likely driven by a domestic catalyst (RBA repricing or commodity price weakness) rather than a systemic shift in risk appetite. While NZD/USD is also under pressure, the correlation is fading as the session progresses. The desk at FX Pattern sees this as an opportunity to fade the commodity FX weakness and add exposure to stable European crosses, specifically EUR/GBP at its current range.

Forex forecast: base / alternate / invalidation

  • Base scenario (60% probability): EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain stable between 1.1350–1.1400 and 1.3150–1.3250, respectively. AUD/USD and NZD/USD drift lower toward their support levels. EUR/GBP holds near 0.8600, with a slight bias to edge lower if the Aussie weakness continues.
  • Alternate scenario (25% probability): The commodity FX selloff spills over into European pairs, dragging EUR/USD below 1.1300 and GBP/USD below 1.3100. This would require a catalyst such as a sharp equity decline or a hawkish Fed comment.
  • Invalidation (15% probability): A rapid reversal in AUD/USD above 0.7000 would signal that the selloff was an overreaction, lifting NZD/USD and potentially dragging EUR/USD higher toward 1.1450.

Session watchlist: named events with pair impact

  • 10:00 GMT – Eurozone Consumer Confidence (preliminary) – A miss below -14 would weigh on EUR/USD support at 1.1350; a beat above -12 could trigger a push toward 1.1420.
  • 14:30 GMT – Canada Retail Sales (monthly) – Expected 0.5% m/m. A downside surprise below 0.2% would amplify USD/CAD bull bias toward 1.4250; strong print would stall the move.
  • Overnight – RBA Minutes (release) – Focus on labor market tone and any forward guidance. Hawkish lean would lift AUD/USD off support, but earlier easing bias would accelerate the selloff toward 0.6880.

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FAQ

What are today's forex rates?

Forex rates today show EUR/USD at 1.1383, GBP/USD at 1.32, USD/JPY at 161.58, USD/CHF at 0.8098, and AUD/USD at 0.6917. The dollar bloc is mixed with USD/CAD leading at 1.421 and yen crosses near flat.

What is the EUR/USD outlook?

EUR/USD holds at 1.1383 with a neutral bias. Support is at 1.1350, the prior session's low, and a break below opens 1.1300. Resistance is at the psychological 1.1400 level.

Is it a good time to buy GBP/USD?

GBP/USD is firming at 1.32 as EUR/GBP drifts lower to 0.862, but this is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. The pair remains inside yesterday's range with low volatility, and there is no clear directional trigger from the commodity bloc selloff.

What is the key support for EUR/USD?

The key support for EUR/USD is 1.1350, the prior session's low. A break below that level would invalidate the current neutral stance and open the door to 1.1300.