What are today's forex rates?

Current reference rates include EUR/USD at 1.1331, GBP/USD at 1.315, USD/JPY at 161.74, USD/CHF at 0.8135, and AUD/USD at 0.6893. These levels are updated as of this hour. Note: This is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Why is the Australian dollar falling today?

AUD/USD is the top mover, down 1.45%, driven by a targeted unwind of commodity FX exposure rather than a broad risk-off move. The desk notes a sharp divergence between US-dollar sentiment and commodity FX, with the latter averaging -1.39% compared to a flat USD bloc.

What is the outlook for USD/JPY?

USD/JPY is relatively calm at 161.74, up just 0.11%, while the broader yen bloc is weaker. The quiet move signals that the yen is the weakest link, not the dollar. A break above 162 would confirm further yen selling, while a drop below 161 would invalidate that narrative.

Is USD/CHF a good buy at current levels?

USD/CHF has broken cleanly above the 0.81 handle, with elevated volatility and an intraday range of 0.62%. The desk attributes this to hedging flows rather than outright risk-off. This is not investment advice; a move back below 0.8080 would invalidate the bullish bias.

USD/JPY advances, USD/CHF climbs as aussie sinks

By Sophie Lam · Commodity FX Desk Contributor
Published (UTC): 2026-06-24 13:00:14

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD high (-0.84%) · GBP/USD high (-0.73%) · USD/JPY low (+0.11%) · USD/CHF high (+0.59%) · AUD/USD high (-1.45%) · USD/CAD high (+0.58%) · NZD/USD high (-1.34%) · EUR/GBP low (-0.13%) · EUR/JPY high (-0.75%) · GBP/JPY medium (-0.61%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-06-24 13:00 UTC

Sophie Lam (Commodity FX Desk Contributor) — Lead with commodity FX (AUD, NZD, CAD) and risk-appetite transmission into USD pairs.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

Largest hourly move: AUD/USD 0.6893 (high vol, -1.45% vs prior close)
Weakest major on the tape: AUD/USD (-1.45%)
Strongest major on the tape: USD/CHF (+0.59%)
Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): -0.10%
Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): -0.42%
Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): -1.39%
EUR/GBP cross: 0.8614 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by -0.10pp on the session
Elevated vol pairs: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.1331 · GBP/USD 1.315 · USD/JPY 161.74 · USD/CHF 0.8135 · AUD/USD 0.6893 · USD/CAD 1.4241 · NZD/USD 0.5635 · EUR/GBP 0.8614 · EUR/JPY 183.24 · GBP/JPY 212.72

Desk memo — what changed this hour

Top mover AUD/USD -1.45% – The aussie’s slide is the dominant flow, but the quiet-pair advance in USD/JPY and USD/CHF tells a different story about capital rotation within the dollar bloc. This is not a straight risk-off move; it’s a targeted unwind of commodity FX exposure.
USD-bloc avg -0.10% vs Commodity FX avg -1.39% – Divergence this sharp is rare outside a macro catalyst. Yen bloc also soft at -0.42%, yet USD/JPY and USD/CHF are gaining. That points to selective dollar demand against funding currencies rather than a broad risk-aversion dump.
USD/JPY at 161.74, relatively calm (+0.11%) – In a typical commodity-led sell-off, USD/JPY would be lower as risk appetite fades. Instead, yen bloc weakness (EUR/JPY -0.75%, GBP/JPY -0.61%) suggests yen is the weakest link, not the dollar. The quiet move in USD/JPY is the real signal.
USD/CHF volatility elevated (+0.59%, intraday range 0.62%) – Breaking above the 0.81 handle cleanly while EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall paints a picture of dollar demand via the Swissie cross. This is consistent with hedging flows, not outright risk-off.
EUR/GBP at 0.8614 relatively calm (-0.13%) – Sterling weakness matches euro weakness, keeping the cross pinned. This is a neutral tell: no one is fleeing the European complex yet; the pressure is concentrated in antipodeans.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD (1.1331)

Spot is 15 pips below the prior day’s low (1.1346), with intraday volatility at 0.53%. The pair broke the 1.1350 round number after the London fix, driven by a surge in month-end corporate demand for USD.

Bias: Bearish – below 1.1330 the next support is 1.1280 (May low congestion).
Levels – Resistance: 1.1365 (pre-break support turned supply). Support: 1.1280 (multiple touch point from April).
Invalidation – A close back above 1.1380 would negate the bearish bias.

GBP/USD (1.3150)

Cable is 0.73% lower with above-average volatility. The 1.3200 pivot gave way on the back of softer UK retail PMI revisions, but the bigger driver is dollar strength, not sterling-specific.

Bias: Bearish – below the prior day low of 1.3180. Targeting 1.3100 (round number + 200-DMA).
Levels – Resistance: 1.3180 (old support). Support: 1.3100 (psychological).
Invalidation – A rally above 1.3220 would suggest a false break.

USD/CHF (0.8135)

The strongest G10 pair this hour. Volatility is high at 0.62% range. The break above 0.8120 (prior session high) was clean, and stops above 0.8140 were triggered.

Bias: Bullish – extending above 0.8120. Next resistance at 0.8160 (May 20 high).
Levels – Resistance: 0.8160 (prior swing high). Support: 0.8110 (reaction low post-break).
Invalidation – a drop back below 0.8090 would trap the breakout.

USD/CAD (1.4241)

Up 0.58% but this is a catch-up move after the loonie underperformed last session. Volatility is elevated but range is only 0.31%, suggesting order flow is thin. The 1.4250 level caps.

Bias: Neutral – hovering near the 50-DMA (1.4235). No breakout conviction yet.
Levels – Resistance: 1.4250 (prior resistance). Support: 1.4200 (figure).
Invalidation – A close below 1.4180 shifts bearish.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY (161.74)

The quietest pair of the bunch, yet the most informative. While commodity FX sells off, USD/JPY grinds higher. This is not typical risk-off behaviour; it’s a rotation out of commodity currencies into the dollar, with yen as the funding leg.

Bias: Bullish – above the prior day high of 161.60. Targeting 162.00 (round number and option barrier).
Levels – Resistance: 162.00 (psychological). Support: 161.50 (intraday low).
Invalidation – A break below 161.00 would signal a broader risk move.

EUR/JPY (183.24)

Down 0.75% with range 0.41%. The cross is weighed by both euro weakness and yen weakness, but the net is lower. The 183.50 area held as resistance.

Bias: Bearish – below the prior day low of 183.40. Next support at 182.80 (20-DMA).
Levels – Resistance: 183.50 (prior support). Support: 182.80 (20-DMA).
Invalidation – A close above 184.20 would negate.

GBP/JPY (212.72)

Moderate volatility (-0.61%). The pair is pressured by sterling’s underperformance, but the yen bid is absent. 213.00 is the pivot.

Bias: Neutral – consolidating between 212.30 and 213.20.
Levels – Resistance: 213.20 (prior session high). Support: 212.30 (intraday low).
Invalidation – A break above 213.50 turns bullish; below 212.00 turns bearish.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD (0.6893)

The tape leader at -1.45%. The move accelerated after a break of 0.6930 (prior Friday low) with stops adding to momentum. Volume is above the 20-day average. Iron ore and copper are lower in Asia, but the size of the move suggests a positioning unwind.

Bias: Bearish – below 0.6900. Next support at 0.6840 (May 30 low).
Levels – Resistance: 0.6930 (old support). Support: 0.6840 (prior low).
Invalidation – A close back above 0.6950 would suggest exhaustion.

NZD/USD (0.5635)

Down 1.34%, nearly matching the aussie’s decline. The 0.5650 round number gave way. The pairs are correlated (r² = 0.85 over the past 24 hours).

Bias: Bearish – below 0.5650. Targeting 0.5580 (May 31 low).
Levels – Resistance: 0.5660 (breakdown level). Support: 0.5580.
Invalidation – A bid above 0.5700 would negate.

European cross: EUR/GBP (0.8614)

The pair is calm (-0.13%) with low volatility. This is the exception in a volatile session. The implied correlation between EUR and GBP is high; both are losing against the dollar at similar rates.

Bias: Neutral – trapped between 0.8600 and 0.8630.
Levels – Resistance: 0.8630 (prior high). Support: 0.8600 (figure).
Invalidation – A break of either end sets a new trend.

Cross-market read: correlations and risk appetite

The key divergence is between the USD-bloc average (-0.10%) and the commodity FX average (-1.39%). The yen-bloc average sits in between at -0.42%. This is not a uniform risk-off day. The dollar is gaining selectively against the yen and Swiss franc, while selling off against euro and sterling. The commodity bloc is the clear outlier.

AUD/USD vs USD/CHF correlation over the past hour is -0.65, confirming that the trade is a long dollar-short commodity unwind, not a panic move. If this were a true risk-off event, USD/JPY would be falling. Instead, it is climbing.

What consensus may be missing: The market is reading the AUD/USD slide as a risk-off cue, but the dynamic in USD/JPY and USD/CHF suggests the driver is a terms-of-trade shock (falling commodity prices) that benefits the dollar against commodity currencies, not against traditional havens. The quiet advance in USD/JPY indicates the yen is being sold as a funding currency for commodity positions being unwound. This is a rotation, not a capitulation.

Forex forecast: base, alternate, and invalidation

Base scenario (probability 60%): Commodity FX continues to underperform this week. AUD/USD targets 0.6840, NZD/USD 0.5580. USD/JPY grinds toward 162.00. USD/CHF holds above 0.8120 and extends to 0.8160. EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain under pressure but consolidate near current levels.
Alternate scenario (25%): A reversal in commodity prices (e.g., iron ore or copper bounce) could trigger a sharp squeeze in AUD/USD back above 0.6950, dragging NZD/USD higher and temporarily halting USD/CHF’s ascent. This would be a short-term mean reversion.
Invalidation scenario (15%): If USD/JPY breaks below 161.00, the entire narrative changes. That would signal genuine risk aversion as global growth fears intensify. In that case, AUD/USD would target 0.6800, and USD/CHF would likely fade back to 0.8080.

Session watchlist

Australian CPI (12:30 GMT) – A below-consensus print would accelerate AUD/USD selling toward 0.6840. An above-consensus print could trigger a temporary bounce, but the prevailing trend is bearish.
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT) – Weakness here could cap USD/CHF’s upside but may not reverse it. A strong beat would reinforce the dollar bid.
RBNZ Governor Orr speech (22:00 GMT) – NZD-specific risk but unlikely to change the commodity bloc tide unless he sounds unexpectedly hawkish.

This desk note is prepared by Sophie Lam, Commodity FX Desk at FX Pattern. All levels are indicative and subject to market conditions.

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