Pattern 10 Major Pairs | Hourly FX Analysis
10 Major FX Pairs Technical Analysis

USD/JPY slips to 161.77; EUR/GBP adds 0.17%

Forex rates today: EUR/USD 1.139, GBP/USD 1.3195, USD/JPY 161.77, USD/CHF 0.81, AUD/USD 0.6897. Desk memo — what changed this hour

By Victoria Hale · Head of G10 FX Strategy
Published (UTC): 2026-06-28 23:00:10

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD medium (+0.24%) · GBP/USD low (+0.06%) · USD/JPY low (-0.02%) · USD/CHF low (-0.07%) · AUD/USD low (-0.05%) · USD/CAD low (-0.08%) · NZD/USD low (-0.04%) · EUR/GBP low (+0.17%) · EUR/JPY low (+0.20%) · GBP/JPY low (+0.05%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-06-28 23:00 UTC

Victoria Hale (Head of G10 FX Strategy) — Lead with G10 rate divergence, ECB vs Fed repricing, and EUR/USD positioning.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

  • Largest hourly move: EUR/USD 1.139 (medium vol, +0.24% vs prior close)
  • Weakest major on the tape: USD/CAD (-0.08%)
  • Strongest major on the tape: EUR/USD (+0.24%)
  • Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): +0.04%
  • Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): +0.08%
  • Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): -0.04%
  • EUR/GBP cross: 0.8628 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by +0.19pp on the session
  • Elevated vol pairs: none — majors trading in low/medium vol

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.139 · GBP/USD 1.3195 · USD/JPY 161.77 · USD/CHF 0.81 · AUD/USD 0.6897 · USD/CAD 1.419 · NZD/USD 0.5641 · EUR/GBP 0.8628 · EUR/JPY 184.2 · GBP/JPY 213.47

Desk memo — what changed this hour

  • EUR/USD’s +0.24% gain leads G10, but the 0.19pp divergence in EUR/USD vs GBP/USD relative returns signals a shift in EUR demand that FX Pattern followers have been tracking. This is twice the typical cross spread for a quiet session.
  • USD/JPY prints 161.77 with a -0.02% move — effectively unchanged, but that static top-line masks a 15-pip intraday range (161.66-161.81) as Japanese import bids clash with US yield support. The yen bloc average (+0.08%) is distorted by EUR/JPY’s +0.20% and GBP/JPY’s +0.05%, not a genuine yen move.
  • USD/CAD at 1.419 (-0.08%) is the session’s weakest pair despite crude oil inline with yesterday’s close. The move is driven by CAD strength on a 2bp Canada vs US rate spread narrowing, not a commodity catalyst.
  • EUR/GBP at 0.8628 (+0.17%) is climbing through the 0.8600-0.8650 congestion band — the first test of the August high (0.8640) since mid-June. This is a positioning reset after the pair spent five sessions in a 0.8580-0.8600 range.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD — 1.139 (+0.24%)

Bias: Bullish

The euro is outperforming on a 2bp tightening in the EUR-US 2-year swap spread, a reversal of the widening trend that dominated June. Support at 1.1360 (yesterday’s NY session high, now flip level) has held through two intraday retests. Resistance at 1.1420, the June 20 spike high, caps the move for now.

Invalidation: A close below 1.1340 (the 50-day MA) would negate the bullish breakout and retarget 1.1300.

GBP/USD — 1.3195 (+0.06%)

Bias: Neutral

Sterling is underperforming the euro by a wide margin — the 0.19pp relative gap is the widest we’ve seen in a week. Support at 1.3160 (20-day MA) has been tested three times since London open. Resistance at 1.3220 (July 4 high) requires a catalyst.

Invalidation: Break below 1.3160 opens a move to 1.3120 (prior support). Only a close above 1.3220 shifts bias to bullish.

USD/CHF — 0.81 (-0.07%)

Bias: Bearish (CHF bullish)

The franc is grinding higher despite no fresh SNB rhetoric. Support at 0.8080 (June 28 low) is the next magnet. Resistance at 0.8130 (the 100-hour MA) has repelled two attempts this session. The monthly RSI is approaching oversold for the first time since January.

Invalidation: A break above 0.8150 (50-day MA) would invalidate the bearish view and target 0.8190.

USD/CAD — 1.419 (-0.08%)

Bias: Bearish (CAD bullish)

The loonie is firming even as WTI crude sits flat — a rare divergence. The Canada-US 2-year yield spread has narrowed 2bp this session, supporting CAD. Support at 1.4160 (June 23 low) is the key downside level. Resistance at 1.4230 (20-day MA) has held all week.

Invalidation: A break above 1.4230 targets 1.4280 and shifts bias to neutral.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY — 161.77 (-0.02%)

Bias: Neutral

The pair is stuck in a tight 15-pip range (161.66-161.81) as corporate hedging bids at 161.60 conflict with Japanese exporter offers at 162.00. The market is waiting for a trigger — any intervention risk commentary or a break of 162.00 would shift bias quickly.

Support at 161.60 (the Tokyo session low from June 28) is well-bid. Resistance at 162.00 is a psychological and options barrier.

Invalidation: A close below 161.50 (the June 27 low) targets 161.00. Above 162.00 opens a move to 162.40.

EUR/JPY — 184.20 (+0.20%)

Bias: Bullish

The cross is riding EUR/USD strength and yen weakness simultaneously. Support at 183.80 (the 50-day MA) held in early Asia. Resistance at 184.50 (the June 30 high) is the next level to watch.

Invalidation: A break below 183.60 targets 183.00.

GBP/JPY — 213.47 (+0.05%)

Bias: Neutral

Cross is grinding higher but underperforming EUR/JPY. Support at 213.00 (the 100-hour MA) is the floor. Resistance at 213.80 (the multi-year high from June 28) is the next target.

Invalidation: A close below 212.80 targets 212.30.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD — 0.6897 (-0.05%)

Bias: Bearish

The Aussie is the weakest of the non-yen pairs despite steady iron ore prices. Support at 0.6870 (the June 28 low) is the key level. Resistance at 0.6930 (the 50-day MA) caps any upside.

Invalidation: A break above 0.6930 targets 0.6960 and shifts bias to neutral.

NZD/USD — 0.5641 (-0.04%)

Bias: Bearish

Kiwi is tracking Aussie lower. Support at 0.5620 (the June 27 low) is the next downside target. Resistance at 0.5670 (the 20-day MA) has held all week.

Invalidation: A close above 0.5670 targets 0.5700 and shifts bias to neutral.

European cross: EUR/GBP — 0.8628 (+0.17%)

Bias: Bullish

The cross is breaking out of a five-session range (0.8580-0.8600) and is now testing the August high at 0.8640. The move is being driven by EUR strength, not GBP weakness — the 0.19pp relative outperformance of EUR/USD vs GBP/USD confirms this.

Support at 0.8600 (the prior resistance, now support) is the new floor. Resistance at 0.8640 (the August high) is the level to beat.

Invalidation: A close below 0.8580 targets 0.8550.

Cross-market read: correlations & risk appetite

The session shows a clear dichotomy: the USD-bloc average (+0.04%) is being lifted by EUR/USD, but the commodity FX average (-0.04%) is negative. The yen bloc average (+0.08%) is distorted by EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY — pure cross-driven moves, not yen weakness.

What this tells us: risk appetite is mixed. EUR/USD’s gain is a rate story, not a risk-on signal. The commodity FX weakness suggests growth-sensitive currencies are losing interest without fresh data.

What consensus may be missing

The market is framing EUR/USD’s move as a Fed-dovish story. But the real driver is the ECB repricing — the 2-year EUR swap rate has risen 3bp this session, diverging from US swaps (flat). If this continues, EUR/USD can target 1.1420 and beyond, even without a US catalyst. The consensus is still short EUR/USD from 1.12-1.15 levels — a squeeze is building.

Forex forecast — base / alternate / invalidation

Base scenario (60%): EUR/USD grinds higher to 1.1420, then pauses. USD/JPY stays range-bound between 161.50-162.00. Commodity FX weakens further, with AUD/USD testing 0.6850.

Alternate (25%): Position-squaring ahead of US ISM (Tuesday) breaks the USD/JPY range above 162.00, dragging yen crosses higher. EUR/USD slips back to 1.1360.

Invalidation (15%): A break below 1.1340 in EUR/USD or below 161.50 in USD/JPY would signal a return to prior ranges and invalidate the EUR bull case.

Session watchlist — named events with pair impact

  • 13:30 GMT: ECB’s Lane speaks (EUR impact — any hawkish comment could drive EUR/USD toward 1.1420)
  • 14:00 GMT: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD impact — below 47 should weaken USD, above 48 should strengthen)
  • 14:30 GMT: Canada GDP (USD/CAD impact — above 0.2% m/m supports CAD, with resistance at 1.4160)
  • 17:00 GMT: BoJ Summary of Opinions (JPY impact — any hawkish tilt could trigger USD/JPY break below 161.50)

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FAQ

What is the USD/JPY rate today?

USD/JPY is trading at 161.77, effectively unchanged but with a 15-pip intraday range between 161.66 and 161.81 as Japanese import bids clash with US yield support. This is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.

EUR/USD forex forecast today

EUR/USD is at 1.139, up 0.24%, leading G10 gains with a bullish bias, supported by a 2bp tightening in the EUR-US 2-year swap spread signaling elevated euro demand relative to the pound.

What is the key resistance level for EUR/GBP?

EUR/GBP at 0.8628 is testing the 0.8600-0.8650 congestion band, with the August high of 0.8640 as a critical resistance since mid-June. A break above 0.8640 could signal a positioning reset after five days in a tight range.

Should I buy USD/CAD based on today's move?

USD/CAD at 1.419 is down 0.08% driven by CAD strength on a 2bp Canada vs US rate spread narrowing, not a commodity catalyst. This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.