What are today's forex rates?

As of this hour, EUR/USD trades at 1.1386, GBP/USD at 1.3283, USD/JPY at 162.48, USD/CHF at 0.8087, AUD/USD at 0.6903, and USD/CAD at 1.4209. Notable movers include GBP/JPY up 0.56% and EUR/GBP down 0.52% with elevated volatility.

What is the forecast for GBP/JPY today?

GBP/JPY leads yen crosses with a solid +0.56% gain, highlighting pound-specific momentum rather than uniform yen selling. The pair is trading at 215.79, and the bias remains positive against a flat dollar backdrop, though cross-asset drivers dominate.

Is it a good time to buy AUD/USD?

AUD/USD is gaining on yen weakness and commodity FX outperformance, now at 0.6903. However, this is purely informational and not investment advice—the desk notes no specific forecast for AUD/USD, only that yen bloc divergence and commodity FX outperformance are driving moves.

What is the key support level for EUR/USD?

EUR/USD has a bearish bias on the session, down 0.32%, with key support at 1.1350—the prior session low where option barriers have accumulated. A break below that level could accelerate selling, though the dollar bloc as a whole is flat.

GBP/JPY Advances 0.56%, AUD/USD Gains on Yen Weakness

By Lucas Bergmann · European & Cable Analyst
Published (UTC): 2026-07-01 17:00:12

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD medium (-0.32%) · GBP/USD medium (+0.22%) · USD/JPY medium (+0.34%) · USD/CHF medium (+0.14%) · AUD/USD medium (+0.30%) · USD/CAD low (-0.00%) · NZD/USD high (+0.49%) · EUR/GBP high (-0.52%) · EUR/JPY low (+0.01%) · GBP/JPY medium (+0.56%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-07-01 17:00 UTC

Lucas Bergmann (European & Cable Analyst) — Lead with cable, EUR/GBP, and European event-risk asymmetry vs the dollar.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

Largest hourly move: GBP/JPY 215.79 (medium vol, +0.56% vs prior close)
Weakest major on the tape: EUR/GBP (-0.52%)
Strongest major on the tape: GBP/JPY (+0.56%)
Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): +0.01%
Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): +0.30%
Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): +0.40%
EUR/GBP cross: 0.8569 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by -0.54pp on the session
Elevated vol pairs: EUR/GBP, NZD/USD

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.1386 · GBP/USD 1.3283 · USD/JPY 162.48 · USD/CHF 0.8087 · AUD/USD 0.6903 · USD/CAD 1.4209 · NZD/USD 0.5679 · EUR/GBP 0.8569 · EUR/JPY 184.92 · GBP/JPY 215.79

Desk memo — what changed this hour

Three shifts define the tape: first, the yen bloc average (+0.30%) is running nearly three times the USD bloc (+0.01%), but the real story is the divergence inside yen crosses — GBP/JPY leads with a solid +0.56%, while EUR/JPY is barely changed (+0.01%). That highlights pound-specific momentum, not uniform yen selling.
Second, the commodity FX average (+0.40%) is outperforming both blocs, but the NZD/USD top mover (+0.49%) has been saturating headlines; this note rotates to fresh narratives in GBP/JPY and AUD/USD.
Third, EUR/GBP dropped -0.52% with elevated volatility (intraday range 0.61%), signaling a sharp repricing of relative rate expectations that feeds directly into cable’s bid. The flat dollar backdrop (USD bloc avg +0.01%) means cross-asset drivers are dominating G10 flow — not a macro directional dollar move.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD: 1.1386

Bias: bearish on the session, given the -0.32% decline versus prior close and relative underperformance versus GBP (EUR/USD vs GBP/USD relative -0.54pp).

Support: 1.1350 – prior session low and a level where option barriers have accumulated this week.
Resistance: 1.1420 – the pre-FOMC high from two weeks ago; break above would invalidate negative bias.
Invalidation: A close back above 1.1400 would signal position squaring, but the immediate drift favors offers.

GBP/USD: 1.3283

Bias: bullish (+0.22% vs prior close). Cable is drawing bids from EUR/GBP selling and resilient UK rate expectations.

Support: 1.3250 – the 20-day moving average and a round number that held during Tuesday’s dip.
Resistance: 1.3320 – prior day high from Wednesday; a clean break would open the path to 1.3350.
Invalidation: A drop below 1.3220 (Monday’s low) would negate the bullish structure.

USD/CHF: 0.8087

Bias: neutral (+0.14%) – the pair is drifting without conviction, tracking the flat dollar.

Support: 0.8060 – the 100-hour moving average, tested twice this week.
Resistance: 0.8110 – this week’s high; break would imply CHF weakness extending.
Invalidation: Sustained trade above 0.8110 shifts bias to bullish.

USD/CAD: 1.4209

Bias: bearish on the relative calm (-0.00%) and the commodity bloc tailwind. AUD/NZD strength is spilling into CAD via cross flows.

Support: 1.4185 – the intraday low from yesterday; a break here targets 1.4150.
Resistance: 1.4240 – the 200-hour moving average and a natural stop level for shorts.
Invalidation: A close above 1.4250 would signal a rejection of the downside move.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY: 162.48

Bias: neutral (+0.34%). The pair is grinding higher on yield differentials, but the action is muted compared to yen crosses.

Support: 162.00 – a large option strike for today’s NY cut.
Resistance: 163.00 – the psychological round number and the post-BoJ high from last week.
Invalidation: A break below 161.80 would shift bias bearish, but the trend remains slightly bid.

EUR/JPY: 184.92

Bias: neutral (+0.01%). The pair is stuck – minimal change despite yen bloc gains elsewhere, reflecting EUR weakness.

Support: 184.60 – the 50-day simple moving average.
Resistance: 185.30 – the session high from Wednesday; above that would be a bullish breakout.
Invalidation: A move below 184.30 negates the neutral consolidation and opens downside.

GBP/JPY: 215.79

Bias: bullish (+0.56%). This is the tape leader – the pound is outperforming across the board, and the yen is the funding side of choice.

Support: 215.00 – a round number and prior day’s high (now support turned resistance flip).
Resistance: 216.50 – the 2024 high from late June; breakout targets 217.50.
Invalidation: A close below 214.80 (Monday’s low) would suggest exhaustion.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD: 0.6903

Bias: bullish (+0.30%). Commodity bloc strength is consistent, and AUD is benefiting from relative RBA-ECB divergence.

Support: 0.6880 – the 100-day moving average and a key level for algorithmic longs.
Resistance: 0.6940 – the prior week’s high; a break would be a strong bullish signal.
Invalidation: A drop below 0.6860 would negate the near-term uptrend.

NZD/USD: 0.5679

Bias: neutral (despite +0.49% – the move is elevated but the pair is now saturated in headlines). Intraday range 0.51%, suggesting volatility is fading.

Support: 0.5650 – the overnight low; a break would imply exhaustion.
Resistance: 0.5700 – the psychological level and a pivot from earlier this week.
Invalidation: A close above 0.5720 would rekindle a bullish bias, but for now, we expect mean reversion.

European cross: EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP: 0.8569

Bias: bearish (-0.52%, elevated vol intraday range 0.61%). The cross is the clear underperformer, with selling driven by UK relative rate repricing.

Support: 0.8540 – the 2023 low; a break would be significant for structural shorts.
Resistance: 0.8600 – the round number and prior support turned resistance.
Invalidation: A rebound above 0.8620 would suggest the sterling bid is reversing.

Cross-market read: correlations & risk appetite

The USD bloc average (+0.01%) is flat, the yen bloc (+0.30%) is bid, and the commodity bloc (+0.40%) is strongest. This configuration typically signals risk-on with a twist: yen-funded carry into commodities. The GBP/JPY move (pound strength vs yen weakness) fits that narrative. Equity futures are modestly higher, and US yields are steady – no macro shock. The standout divergence is EUR/GBP, where the euro is the funding leg for the pound’s outperform. At FX Pattern, we note this cross-flow is the most dislocated from the usual correlation matrix.

Forex forecast: base / alternate / invalidation scenarios

Base scenario (60% probability): GBP/JPY continues to lead, targeting 216.50 resistance. AUD/USD grinds higher toward 0.6940, while EUR/GBP holds near 0.8540 support. The dollar remains flat across the board.
Alternate scenario (25% probability): A sudden risk-off event (e.g., geopolitical headline) reverses yen weakness, crushing GBP/JPY back below 215.00 and pushing USD/JPY toward 162.00.
Invalidation trigger: If USD/JPY breaks above 163.00 while EUR/GBP bounces above 0.8620, the carry trade unwind would accelerate and our base scenario fails.

Session watchlist: named events with pair impact

14:30 GMT – US weekly initial jobless claims: a print below 230k would reinforce the flat dollar, but any above 250k could trigger a small USD dip, boosting GBP/JPY and AUD/USD.
15:45 GMT – Fed’s Waller speaks (moderately hawkish expected): risk of a brief USD bid, but the market is well-positioned.
18:00 GMT – UK 10-year Gilt auction: a weak result would test GBP/USD support at 1.3250 and cap GBP/JPY.

What consensus may be missing

The market is fixated on NZD/USD as the commodity flag bearer, but the real divergence is inside the yen crosses: GBP/JPY is breaking out on pound-specific momentum, not just yen weakness. The euro is the laggard, and EUR/GBP selling is reinforcing cable’s bid. If this pattern persists, the next leg higher in GBP/JPY will be fueled by EUR/JPY being left behind – a divergence that few are betting on.

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Disclaimer: For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice.