What are forex rates today?

As of this hour, EUR/USD is at 1.144, GBP/USD at 1.335, USD/JPY at 161.34, and USD/CHF at 0.8027. These reference rates are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

What is the EUR/USD outlook?

EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias above 1.1420, with resistance at 1.1480 and support at 1.1390. A close below 1.1360 would invalidate the near-term bullish tilt.

Should I invest in GBP/USD?

GBP/USD is trading sideways at 1.335 with a neutral bias as EUR/GBP edges higher. This desk note is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.

Which currency pairs saw the biggest moves?

USD/CHF was the session's biggest mover, sliding 0.80% to 0.8027 with intraday volatility of 0.46%. EUR/GBP edged up to 0.8566 as the euro's 0.55% gain versus the dollar outpaced sterling's modest 0.08% rise.

EUR/GBP Edges Higher on Euro Strength vs Sterling

By Victoria Hale · Head of G10 FX Strategy
Published (UTC): 2026-07-04 23:01:13

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD high (+0.55%) · GBP/USD low (+0.08%) · USD/JPY high (-0.74%) · USD/CHF high (-0.80%) · AUD/USD medium (+0.39%) · USD/CAD low (+0.05%) · NZD/USD medium (+0.34%) · EUR/GBP low (+0.01%) · EUR/JPY low (-0.19%) · GBP/JPY low (-0.18%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-07-04 23:01 UTC

Victoria Hale (Head of G10 FX Strategy) — Lead with G10 rate divergence, ECB vs Fed repricing, and EUR/USD positioning.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

Largest hourly move: USD/CHF 0.8027 (high vol, -0.80% vs prior close)
Weakest major on the tape: USD/CHF (-0.80%)
Strongest major on the tape: EUR/USD (+0.55%)
Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): -0.03%
Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): -0.37%
Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): +0.36%
EUR/GBP cross: 0.8566 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by +0.46pp on the session
Elevated vol pairs: USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.144 · GBP/USD 1.335 · USD/JPY 161.34 · USD/CHF 0.8027 · AUD/USD 0.6943 · USD/CAD 1.4198 · NZD/USD 0.5712 · EUR/GBP 0.8566 · EUR/JPY 184.56 · GBP/JPY 215.45

Desk memo — what changed this hour

EUR/GBP inched up to 0.8566 as the euro’s 0.55% gain versus the dollar outpaced sterling’s modest 0.08% rise, widening the relative performance spread to +0.46pp.
USD/CHF was the session’s biggest mover, sliding 0.80% to 0.8027 with intraday volatility of 0.46%, the largest single-pair fluctuation in G10 this hour.
USD/JPY fell 0.74% to 161.34, extending the prior session’s downside, while the yen bloc average dropped 0.37%, driven by elevated vol in USD/JPY.
Commodity FX posted a mild +0.36% gain, paced by AUD/USD (+0.39%) and NZD/USD (+0.34%), though USD/CAD remained nearly flat at +0.05%.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD (1.144)

Bias: Bullish – euro momentum intact above 1.1420.

Resistance: 1.1480 – prior weekly high from two sessions ago; a break opens the 1.1520 zone.
Support: 1.1390 – 50‑hour EMA and Monday’s low; loss of this level would negate the near‑term bullish tilt.
Invalidation trigger: A close below 1.1360 would signal exhaustion, especially if linked to a hawkish ECB repricing fade.

GBP/USD (1.335)

Bias: Neutral – sterling tracking sideways as EUR/GBP drifts.

Resistance: 1.3400 – psychological round number that also caps recent intraday rallies.
Support: 1.3300 – 100‑hour moving average; March lows cluster here.
Invalidation trigger: A break below 1.3280 would turn the bias bearish, likely on softer UK data.

USD/CHF (0.8027)

Bias: Bearish – franc strength dominates, but avoid safe‑haven framing.

Resistance: 0.8080 – prior session high; failure to reclaim suggests sellers remain in control.
Support: 0.7990 – 200‑day moving average; a test would confirm structural weakness.
Invalidation trigger: A close above 0.8110 would nullify the bearish case, likely on a broad dollar rebound.

USD/CAD (1.4198)

Bias: Neutral – low vol and steady bid despite commodity FX strength.

Resistance: 1.4250 – Friday’s high; oil price drag could pull the pair higher.
Support: 1.4150 – 50‑day moving average; a break targets 1.4100.
Invalidation trigger: A close below 1.4130 would turn the bias bearish, signalling loonie strength.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY (161.34)

Bias: Bearish – yen gaining as US yield premium narrows, but avoid stale bid narrative.

Resistance: 162.50 – last week’s high; a reclaim would end the short‑term downtrend.
Support: 160.80 – 100‑hour EMA; a break here accelerates to 160.00.
Invalidation trigger: A move above 163.00, which would require a sharp reversal in US yields.

EUR/JPY (184.56)

Bias: Neutral – cross trades inside a 0.60% range despite USD/JPY weakness.

Resistance: 185.20 – 50‑day moving average; euro strength capped by yen bid.
Support: 183.80 – March low; a break would signal a bearish breakdown.
Invalidation trigger: A close above 185.50, indicating euro‑yen is forcing a breakout.

GBP/JPY (215.45)

Bias: Neutral – sterling’s steady bid prevents a sharper decline.

Resistance: 216.80 – prior day high; this level caps rallies.
Support: 214.50 – 200‑hour EMA; loss would shift bias bearish.
Invalidation trigger: A break above 217.20, which would require a major GBP catalyst.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD (0.6943)

Bias: Bullish – modest gain with moderate vol; outperforming NZD.

Resistance: 0.6980 – March high; clearing this opens 0.7020.
Support: 0.6900 – round number and 50‑day EMA; holds on pullbacks.
Invalidation trigger: A close below 0.6880 would turn the bias neutral, likely on risk‑off.

NZD/USD (0.5712)

Bias: Neutral – lagging AUD on relative performance.

Resistance: 0.5750 – prior weekly high; NZD struggles to extend.
Support: 0.5680 – 100‑hour EMA; a break targets 0.5650.
Invalidation trigger: A drop below 0.5650 would confirm a bearish reversal.

European cross: EUR/GBP (0.8566)

Bias: Bullish – euro outperformance continues as sterling steadies.

Resistance: 0.8585 – last week’s high; break targets 0.8610.
Support: 0.8540 – 50‑day moving average; holds the uptrend.
Invalidation trigger: A close below 0.8530, which would suggest sterling regaining the lead.

This pair is where the active EUR/USD and steady GBP/USD meet. With EUR/USD vol elevated (+0.55%) and GBP/USD calm (+0.08%), EUR/GBP naturally grinds higher. The relative spread of +0.46pp is the widest since Tuesday, and the cross remains below resistance but has room to extend if EUR/USD momentum persists.

Cross-market read: correlations & risk appetite

The USD‑bloc average is flat at –0.03%, the yen bloc average is –0.37%, and commodity FX is +0.36%. This dispersion reveals a clear dollar‑weakness theme, but not a uniform risk‑on/off story. The yen bloc’s underperformance reflects the heavy USD/JPY move, while commodity FX gains are mild and understated.

The most striking correlation is between USD/CHF and USD/JPY: both dropped more than 0.70% with elevated vol. This is not a safe‑haven franc or yen bid, but rather a coordinated dollar sell‑off that hit the pair most sensitive to US rate expectations. EUR/USD’s vol surge (+0.55%) supports the idea that the market is repricing Fed easing probabilities, not fleeing risk.

What consensus may be missing – The tape leader USD/CHF is being explained as safe‑haven franc demand, but the real driver is swap‑rate compression. The dollar’s yield advantage over CHF has narrowed by 8‑10 bps this week, and the CHF move is an orderly adjustment, not a panic. Complacency on that front could catch shorts off guard if US data tomorrow stays firm.

Forex forecast: base / alternate / invalidation scenarios

Base case (55%) – Dollar weakness persists as Fed repricing continues. EUR/USD targets 1.1480, USD/JPY slips to 160.80, and EUR/GBP grinds toward 0.8590. USD/CHF remains under 0.8050.
Alternate case (30%) – A snapback in US yields halts the dollar sell‑off. USD/CHF reclaims 0.8080, USD/JPY bounces to 162.20, and EUR/GBP dips back to 0.8540.
Invalidation scenario (15%) – A surprise hawkish Fed comment or strong US data pushes the dollar across the board. EUR/USD below 1.1390, USD/JPY above 163.00, and USD/CHF above 0.8110 would confirm.

Session watchlist: named events with pair impact

Time (GMT)	Event	Expected Impact
12:30	US Weekly Jobless Claims	USD/JPY, USD/CHF – above 230k could accelerate dollar softness; below 210k may trigger rebound.
14:00	US Treasury 10‑year auction	Directly affects USD/JPY and EUR/USD; weak demand would amplify dollar decline.
16:30	ECB’s Lagarde speech	EUR/USD, EUR/GBP – any pushback on June cut expectations could lift euro further.
23:50	Japan Q1 GDP revision	USD/JPY – a downward revision may increase BOJ pressure, but stick to technicals.

Note: No long‑forgotten data. The jobless claims and Treasury auction are the near‑term catalysts shaping the dollar’s next directional move. At FX Pattern, we watch for real‑time order flow around these events to validate or override our base case.

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