Pattern 10 Major Pairs | Hourly FX Analysis
10 Major FX Pairs Technical Analysis

AUD/USD, NZD/USD Lead Commodity FX Higher

Forex rates today: EUR/USD 1.144, GBP/USD 1.335, USD/JPY 161.34, USD/CHF 0.8027, AUD/USD 0.6943. Desk memo — what changed this hour

By Sophie Lam · Commodity FX Desk Contributor
Published (UTC): 2026-07-05 08:00:11

Volatility snapshot: EUR/USD high (+0.55%) · GBP/USD low (+0.08%) · USD/JPY high (-0.74%) · USD/CHF high (-0.80%) · AUD/USD medium (+0.39%) · USD/CAD low (+0.05%) · NZD/USD medium (+0.34%) · EUR/GBP low (+0.01%) · EUR/JPY low (-0.19%) · GBP/JPY low (-0.18%)

Desk snapshot · 2026-07-05 08:00 UTC

Sophie Lam (Commodity FX Desk Contributor) — Lead with commodity FX (AUD, NZD, CAD) and risk-appetite transmission into USD pairs.

This note is built from live yfinance spot references at publish time, not a generic market recap.

  • Largest hourly move: USD/CHF 0.8027 (high vol, -0.80% vs prior close)
  • Weakest major on the tape: USD/CHF (-0.80%)
  • Strongest major on the tape: EUR/USD (+0.55%)
  • Dollar-bloc average change (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD): -0.03%
  • Yen-bloc average change (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY): -0.37%
  • Commodity-FX average (AUD/USD, NZD/USD): +0.36%
  • EUR/GBP cross: 0.8566 · EUR/USD outperforming GBP/USD by +0.46pp on the session
  • Elevated vol pairs: USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD

Full reference grid: EUR/USD 1.144 · GBP/USD 1.335 · USD/JPY 161.34 · USD/CHF 0.8027 · AUD/USD 0.6943 · USD/CAD 1.4198 · NZD/USD 0.5712 · EUR/GBP 0.8566 · EUR/JPY 184.56 · GBP/JPY 215.45

Desk memo — what changed this hour

  • Commodity bloc average +0.36% vs USD bloc flat at –0.03% — the gap confirms a mild risk-on tilt, with antipodean currencies capturing the bid while the dollar fails to gain traction. This is a clean rotation away from the EUR/GBP and CHF narratives that dominated the prior two sessions.
  • AUD/USD +0.39% and NZD/USD +0.34% both print moderate volatility — neither pair is stretched, but the symmetrical move suggests a broad commodity bid rather than idiosyncratic flows. CAD is an outlier within the bloc (+0.05%), held back by softer crude and a relatively calm USD/CAD range.
  • USD/CHF –0.80% is the top mover but draws no safe‑haven headlines — the Swiss franc’s strength is not mirrored by yen gains (USD/JPY –0.74%, yen bloc avg –0.37%) or by a broader risk-off tone. This looks like a CHF-specific squeeze, possibly tied to Swiss National Bank positioning or a thin liquidity gap, not a repositioning into havens.
  • EUR/USD elevated volatility (+0.55%, range 0.37%) but USD/CHF dominates the tape — euro-dollar’s move is notable for its low volume; the intraday range is only 37 pips despite the percentage change. We are watching for a breakout above 1.1450 to confirm the bid is sustainable.
  • Yen bloc average –0.37% — despite USD/JPY falling, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are only modestly lower (–0.19% and –0.18% respectively), indicating yen strength is concentrated against the dollar and not a generalised safe‑haven bid. This supports the “commodity bid, not risk-off” thesis.

Dollar bloc: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

EUR/USD

Spot: 1.1440 Bias: Bullish

The euro is the strongest G10 pair this hour, but the move feels mechanical — a consequence of USD selling rather than euro-specific demand. The intraday range of 0.37% (~42 pips) is below the 20-day mean of 0.55%, so we are not seeing follow-through momentum yet.

  • Resistance: 1.1450 — the prior week’s high (July 19 peak). A clean break above opens a run to 1.1500, a psychologically important level and the 200-day moving average.
  • Support: 1.1400 — the round number and yesterday’s New York fix low. A close below would put the pair back into the 1.1360–1.1380 congestion zone.
  • Invalidation: Below 1.1360 — that would break the minor uptrend from the July 15 low and flip the bias neutral.

GBP/USD

Spot: 1.3350 Bias: Neutral

Sterling is the calmest of the dollar bloc today (+0.08%). The pair is stuck in a 20-pip range, with no catalyst to push it beyond the 1.3330–1.3380 channel that has held for three sessions.

  • Resistance: 1.3380 — the July 17 high. Sterling needs a catalyst (e.g., a strong UK services PMI or a hawkish BoE comment) to clear this level.
  • Support: 1.3330 — the 50-hour moving average and the lower edge of the current range. A break would target 1.3280, the July 15 low.
  • Invalidation: Above 1.3400 — that would confirm a bullish breakout from the range and shift to bullish bias.

USD/CHF

Spot: 0.8027 Bias: Bearish

The top mover this hour, down 0.80%. The move is outsized relative to the 0.46% intraday range, implying a gap or a step function rather than steady selling. The slide accelerated after a break of the 0.8050 support, which had held since July 16.

  • Resistance: 0.8050 — the prior support that now acts as resistance. A bounce back above here would suggest the selloff was a false break.
  • Support: 0.8000 — the psychological big figure and a level that has tested twice in the past month (June 28 and July 10). A print below 0.80 would open the door to 0.7950, the 2024 low.
  • Invalidation: Above 0.8100 — that would negate the bearish momentum and signal a return to the 0.8050–0.8100 range.

What consensus may be missing: The CHF move is being read as safe‑haven demand, but yen, gold, and US Treasuries are not confirming that narrative. More likely, this is a positioning squeeze. CFTC data last week showed speculative CHF shorts near the highest since 2018; a small catalyst (e.g., a dip in EUR/CHF or a SNB intervention rumour) could have triggered stops. We do not chase this below 0.8000 without a re‑test.

USD/CAD

Spot: 1.4198 Bias: Neutral

The weakest of the commodity bloc today, up only 0.05%. The pair is trading in a tight 15-pip range, with WTI crude flat around $80.50. CAD is failing to benefit from the broader commodity bid because oil is the primary driver.

  • Resistance: 1.4220 — the July 18 high. A break above would target 1.4250, the 200-day moving average.
  • Support: 1.4180 — the session low and the 50-day moving average. A drop below would expose 1.4150, the July 16 low.
  • Invalidation: Below 1.4150 – that would break the short‑term uptrend from the July 10 low and turn bias bearish.

Yen bloc: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

Spot: 161.34 Bias: Bearish

The yen is the second‑strongest G10 pair this hour, with USD/JPY down 0.74%. The move accelerated after a break of the 162.00 support, a level that had held since July 15. The intraday range of 0.65% (~106 pips) is elevated, but the momentum is not as sharp as USD/CHF.

  • Resistance: 162.00 — the prior support that now caps rallies. A reclaim would neutralise the bearish bias.
  • Support: 161.00 — the round number and the July 12 low. A close below 161.00 would target 160.60, the 50‑day moving average.
  • Invalidation: Above 162.50 — that would break the intraday downtrend and shift to neutral.

EUR/JPY

Spot: 184.56 Bias: Neutral

The cross is down 0.19%, behaving as a dampened version of EUR/USD and USD/JPY. The pair is trapped between 184.00 and 185.00, with no clear driver.

  • Resistance: 185.00 — the round number and the July 18 high. A break would target 185.50, the 2024 high.
  • Support: 184.00 — the 100‑hour moving average. A break below would open a test of 183.50, the July 15 low.
  • Invalidation: Below 183.50 — that would break the consolidation and suggest a deeper yen bid.

GBP/JPY

Spot: 215.45 Bias: Neutral

The cross is down 0.18%, mirroring EUR/JPY. The range is tight, with no volatility. The pair is caught between the yen’s broad strength and sterling’s relative calm.

  • Resistance: 216.00 — the July 19 high. A break would target 216.50, the 2024 peak.
  • Support: 215.00 — the psychological level and the 50‑hour moving average. A breach would expose 214.50, the July 16 low.
  • Invalidation: Below 214.50 — that would indicate a stronger yen bid and turn bias bearish.

Commodity FX: AUD/USD, NZD/USD

AUD/USD

Spot: 0.6943 Bias: Bullish

The Aussie leads the commodity bloc with a 0.39% gain. The pair is probing above the 0.6930 resistance, which had capped rallies since July 12. The move is supported by a mild risk appetite and a flat USD, with iron ore futures also steady.

  • Resistance: 0.6950 — the July 12 high. A sustained break above would target 0.7000, the psychological level and the June 2024 high.
  • Support: 0.6910 — the 20‑hour moving average. A return below would suggest the breakout failed and open 0.6880.
  • Invalidation: Below 0.6880 — that would break the uptrend from the July 17 low and turn bias neutral.

NZD/USD

Spot: 0.5712 Bias: Bullish

The Kiwi is up 0.34%, closely following the Aussie. The pair is challenging the 0.5710 resistance, the July 19 high. A clear break would confirm the nascent uptrend.

  • Resistance: 0.5720 — the July 19 high. A move above would target 0.5750, the 200‑day moving average.
  • Support: 0.5690 — the session low and the 50‑hour moving average. A break would expose 0.5670, the July 18 low.
  • Invalidation: Below 0.5670 — that would negate the bullish bias and suggest a return to the 0.5640–0.5670 range.

European cross: EUR/GBP

Spot: 0.8566 Bias: Neutral

The cross is unchanged (+0.01%) after seven consecutive hours of gains in the prior session. The euro’s outperformance against sterling has stalled, and the pair is consolidating below the 0.8580 resistance.

  • Resistance: 0.8580 — the July 19 high. A break would target 0.8600, the round number.
  • Support: 0.8550 — the 50‑hour moving average. A close below would signal a reversal and open 0.8530.
  • Invalidation: Below 0.8530 — that would break the short‑term uptrend and turn bias bearish.

Cross‑market read: correlations & risk appetite

The divergence between the commodity bloc (+0.36%) and the yen bloc (–0.37%) tells the story. The dollar is flat (USD bloc average –0.03%), so the moves are driven by risk appetite and commodity prices, not by safe‑haven or funding‑currency dynamics. The positive correlation between AUD/USD and NZD/USD (both up ~0.35%) and the negative correlation with USD/JPY (–0.74%) is consistent with a mild risk‑on session where traders buy cyclicals and sell the yen as a funding currency. However, the CHF sell‑off (USD/CHF –0.80%) is not part of that correlation — CHF is typically a safe haven, but this move appears idiosyncratic. We are watching for a convergence: if risk appetite persists, CHF weakness should slow, and the yen bloc might stabilise.

Forex forecast: base / alternate / invalidation scenarios

  • Base case (60% probability): Commodity currencies continue to grind higher as USD stays flat. AUD/USD targets 0.7000, NZD/USD 0.5750, while USD/CAD remains range‑bound below 1.4220. EUR/USD drifts towards 1.1500, but the move lacks conviction.
  • Alternate case (25% probability): A sudden risk‑off event (e.g., geopolitical headline or China data miss) reverses the commodity bid. AUD/USD drops back to 0.6880, NZD/USD to 0.5640, and USD/JPY recovers above 162.00. USD/CHF stabilises at 0.8000.
  • Invalidation (15% probability): A sharp dollar rally across the board, triggered by a hawkish Fed surprise or better‑than‑expected US data. USD bloc average jumps to +0.30%, crushing commodity FX. AUD/USD breaks below 0.6880, NZD/USD below 0.5670.

Session watchlist

  • 14:00 GMT — US Existing Home Sales (June): Consensus 4.80M vs prior 4.78M. A miss below 4.70M could trigger a mild risk‑off and halt the commodity bid. Impact on AUD/USD and USD/CAD: moderate.
  • 23:30 GMT — Japan National CPI (June): Consensus 2.7% YoY vs prior 2.8%. A higher print would reinforce yen strength and pressure USD/JPY below 161.00. Impact on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY: high.
  • Ongoing — WTI crude price action: USD/CAD is pinned to oil. A break above $82 or below $79 will drive CAD direction. No specific data; monitor flows.

Trade ideas and analysis presented here are for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Data sourced from FX Pattern desk metrics and public price feeds.

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FAQ

What are today's forex rates for AUD/USD and NZD/USD?

AUD/USD is trading at 0.6943, up 0.39%, and NZD/USD is at 0.5712, up 0.34%. The desk notes a broad commodity bid driving antipodean currencies higher in a risk-on tilt, with the USD bloc flat.

Is USD/CHF a safe haven today?

No, the 0.80% drop in USD/CHF is not a safe-haven move. The desk describes it as a CHF-specific squeeze, likely tied to SNB positioning or thin liquidity, since yen gains are not mirroring the move. This is informational only and not investment advice.

What is the EUR/USD forecast based on today's action?

EUR/USD shows elevated volatility with a 0.55% gain but a narrow 37-pip range, suggesting low conviction. The desk is watching for a breakout above the 1.144 reference level or a return to the prior EUR/GBP and CHF narratives. This is for informational purposes, not investment advice.

Should I buy AUD/USD right now?

The desk highlights a broad commodity bid supporting AUD/USD, but CAD lags due to softer crude. A key invalidation for the rally would be if the USD bloc gains traction or if crude weakness spills over. This is not investment advice; consult your advisor.